To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (11376 ) 6/22/1998 9:13:00 AM From: Kerm Yerman Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 15196
Oil Prices / Monday Morning Oil Price Activity Energy Commentary For June 22, 1998 By John Moore Energy prices barely chalked up gains on Friday as many await evidence from OPEC that 2nd round production cuts will be enough to stabilize prices. Pledged production cuts now stand at 740,000 bpd not including the 63,000 pledged by Russia. Most agree that a million is needed to stabilize prices and that anything less will send prices tumbling again. Some traders are beginning to look beyond Wednesday's OPEC meeting. If foreign currency prices lave bottomed, commodity prices in general and energy specifically could be nearing the end of their seemingly bottomeless pit. For today, expect prices to conslidate with probable weakness in the July contract since today is last trading. Traders looking to get long the market can begin pricing some of the spreads. If July crude breaks the $11.40 level, next support comes in at $10.65 - $11.10. If the $11.40 level holds today, I would expect some short-covering before the close today. --------------------------------------------------------------------- LONDON, June 22 - World oil prices edged tentatively higher on Monday ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna this week which aims to trim even more oil from glutted global markets. But price gains have lacked conviction and the 38-year old cartel was urged to shock the oil market with its second round of supply cuts within three month. The global benchmark for crude oil, Brent blend, was up 28 cents at $13.13 a barrel by 1221 GMT. This is a dollar above the low seen a week ago but is still six dollars below last year's prices. OPEC's second stab at supply cuts risks a mauling from doubting traders familiar with the group's history of broken promises. "The fundamentals are still pretty awful," said Bob Finch, head of trading at the independent trading and refining company Vitol SA in London. Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Saud Nasser al-Sabah urged the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to consider cutting even deeper than already promised. "Everyone is complaining...There are huge amounts of oil on the market and the stocks are very high," he said. "A shock is what the market might need, because the situation is very bad." On the table in Vienna will be 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) of cuts on top of 1.245 million bpd OPEC promised to chop in March. Some analysts believe a further million bpd of cuts may be needed because not all of the March cuts have been delivered. OPEC cut by 1.007 million bpd in May after pledging cutbacks of 1.245 million, the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) said on Monday. "We think 700,000 bpd to 800,000 bpd" of further cuts will be enough to draw stocks in the third and fourth quarters this year, said Jonathan Wright, oil analyst of Merryl Lynch in London. "But it is doubtful that the market will be satisfied with that in the short term" he added. Oil traders have been struggling to sell unwanted cargoes and oil storage tanks in the West are brimming at five year highs. Chairman of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Robert Priddle told Reuters Television on Friday that "stocks are building. There are now difficulties in finding storage for new stocks." Priddle said oil producers had to contend with a spate of downward revisions in Asian oil demand. In a report earlier this month, the IEA revised down its estimate for world demand to 75 million barrels a day and cut its projection for demand growth this year by 300,000 bpd to 1.2 million. Separately, the U.N. Security Council voted on Friday to approve $300 million in equipment to upgrade Iraq's dilapidated oilindustry. This will eventually lead to higher oil exports but the supplies are not expected to reach Baghdad for months.