Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom D who wrote (6963)	6/21/1998 6:00:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

This thing about the AMZN "brand" is often misunderstood. Clearly a book bought from BKS looks and reads the same as one from AMZN. If you want to be a major player in the online book selling market, you must be prepared to lose a few hundred million in advertising and low prices over the next few years to attract customers. Tom, The advertising can never stop. Retailing will not permit that without the loss of customers. This belief that AMZN will eventually have reduced marketing expenses is incorrect. Glenn

To: Tom D who wrote (6963)	6/21/1998 11:24:00 PM
From: Mark Myword	Respond to of 164684

>> Very nice post, William...<< And a nice reply by you , Tom.... We have each articulated our opposing views of how the future will unfold. This must be the nineteenth time I have expressed those same thoughts. And the nineteenth time I have received the same analysis and reply back. No problem with that. It boils down to your outlook, how long you can wait for a payoff (that might never come at all), etc. You and others make generous assumptions on behalf of Amazon, wrongly so IMO. You ignore competition, shop-bots that tell people where the lowest price is (even after they have gone to BKS or AMZN to find the book they want), and the reality of having to show a profit. You mentioned credibility? Good word. If I give somebody my money to invest in a business ( as opposed to a concept with no time limit to eventually turn a profit ), the best way they can gain credibility with me is to run the business in a responsible fashion , and show me a steady profit. Hopefully a big profit. That begets credibility. I find it very interesting that John Doerr is coming out with the "wait five years and then see how big it is" argument. I think that the people who are currently buying that line will have a much different feeling in a few quarters, when it becomes clear that it's not all that easy to cash in on the internet (other than via stock promotions, which I would gladly admit these guys are experts at). As far as staggering earnings go, I suggest you run the numbers on a spreadsheet. Do not confuse earnings with stock price appreciation.Or with revenue growth. Or with eyeballs. The price doubled because there are a lot of true believers, we are in a mania, we have clever stock promoters pumping the s**t out of a concept stock, and a short squeeze. Tom , let me just close with a few observations. I believe you are just as sincere in thinking Amazon will be a huge business, as I am in feeling that it is an incredibly overvalued stock in a mania. But when a company and the vested interests promoting it tell me: 1) the payoff is far into the future, have faith 2) we are building a "brand" to take orders and ship a commodity product at a loss, and 3) BTW , we want to use a new approach to accounting that will make the losses look like we actually are making money,.........well , to me it's a crock. Have a good evening.

To: Tom D who wrote (6963)	6/22/1998 11:26:00 AM
From: H James Morris	Respond to of 164684

TomD, you wrote<If you want to bet that the net will deliver less than expectations, economically, you will probably have to wait 10 years before that judgement is clear. Because for the next 5 years, expectations, rather than actual economic performance will be what drives bulls to invest in the internet. It is the next huge growth opportunity. > Well put. Glen and F The?? hope that the jury will announce the verdict in the next month or 2 while I hope by the 3rd fri in Oct. It looks like Wall Street, Kleiner and you might give it until ~.