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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ben Antanaitis who wrote (22823)6/21/1998 11:24:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 42771
 
NOVL options --- here is where I'm driving

I believe but you would know since you follow this that for most of the past expirations NOVL options have been basically out of the money and could be sold with impunity since they would never be exercised.

If that is true then on Monday a rather unique NOVL situation arises in that all of this stock is in the money and must be delivered rather than the typical case for NOVL of all of the options having expired worthless.

Those caught short, and the brokerage houses or whomever has gotten the exercised shares are going to be looking to make some upside money.

The basic bias on the stock Monday should be up.

Combine this with my observations on the Friday action that (1) they held down volume (2) orders were executed mostly at Bid to compress the premiums (3) an enormous ask side inventory of orders built up and was left to rot in the queue and you get the possibility of a move back up to the high fairly quickly based solely on demand for the stock.

What do you think?