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To: Big Bucks who wrote (20637)	6/22/1998 12:57:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Bucks and all, "Top technology stock watchers give investors an edge" Interesting, about top analysts for tech stocks. excerpt: Wall Street analysts track the stocks in their so-called "universe" clients by offering earnings forecasts and "buy"/"sell" recommendations. Individual investors, alas, rarely have instant access to their recommendations to buy, sell or "hold" a stock. They often must wait a day, after pension funds and mutual funds get their hands on the research. cbs.marketwatch.com GM

To: Big Bucks who wrote (20637)	6/22/1998 1:23:00 AM
From: MileHigh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Bucks, you are probably right about Samsung, but theoretically even by not producing for a week or two they ARE reducing supply. Sure not by much, but they are, and yes they may have stockpiles, but as they produce less, they will work off the stockpiles sooner than later. Let me tell you about my job- but please do not laugh- I am in sales management for a large fruit and vegetable company. Well like DRAM, we have too much supply of a particular product, prices have tumbled in the market place and we nor other canners are making any money because of it, but the supply and demand rules apply here, everyone must lower their price to dump the product they have already produced. So, everyone is losing money but you can't talk to each other (because that's illegal as you know), so one lone brave company might make a decision to withdraw from the market temporarily because they can not make money at the current price level. And guess what happens, the other canners are relieved because someone is "trying to lead the market higher" so they join the bandwagon and stop dumping and prices firm. They all knew they were losing money but someone had to make the first move....Much like the DRAM situation and Samsung, but not exactly....This represents an important first step in the process of the industry trying to firm prices....Look for other DRAM manufactures to follow suit, that is what will be important.... Sorry about the rambling.... MileHigh

To: Big Bucks who wrote (20637)	6/22/1998 6:25:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Big Bucks: Check out this 1997 article on the affects of DRAM production cuts by Samsung. Spot prices shot up. BTW, LG and Hyundai will also curtail production for at least 5 days during this summer. It should be noted that shutdowns around this time of year is common for Koreans. Long term, you may well be right re production reductions. But I see any acknowledgement of a problem by a SEA country as culturally significant. Denial is a way of life over there; saving face is the rule. Ask the Japanese. Well, maybe you shouldn't ask them <g>.I don't see denial in this move by Koreans. I see it as a potential acknowledgement of a problem. I see the potential beginnings of a coordinated movement by the Koreans to shore up DRAM prices. Whether this is the case and whether their efforts will be successful is open to discussion. But if you don't watch the landscape, it might change without you knowing it. pubsys.cmp.com Production cuts drive up DRAM prices By David Lammers TOKYO -- Sharp cutbacks in 16-Mbit production by several DRAM makers caused prices on those devices to shoot up last week. Matt Cleary, a Seoul-based analyst for HG Asia, said he believes the Korean government may have given some under-the-table guidance to the major semiconductor companies to cut 16-Mbit prices. Cleary said Samsung Electronics Corp.'s strategy is to keep the bit price of the 16-Mbit density part high enough, while driving the bit price at the 64-Mbit level low enough, to force a bit-price crossover over the next 12 months. Analysts said that LG Semicon and Hyundai Electronics, the two other major Korean DRAM makers, as well as Mitsubishi Electric Corp. in Japan also were cutting back on 16-Mbit DRAM production. The results were considerable: Spot prices rose quickly and contract prices rebounded from the $5.80 lows cited by the America IC Exchange, a Web-based chip-trading company that tracks DRAM prices daily (www.AICE.com). Samsung (Seoul, South Korea) issued a statement late last week saying it has been "regulating" its 16-Mbit DRAM production since the third quarter of 1996, and now the fruits of those efforts are showing up in the market price. Regulation sticks "Samsung will regulate its production cuts on the basis that it does not affect the business of its long-term contracted clients," the statement said. "However, until the prices rise to a reasonable level, regulation of the 16-Mbit DRAM production capacity will continue." One Samsung spokesman said the company's "target" is to trim DRAM production from today's 15 million or 16 million units a month to about 12 million units per month. "No one in Tokyo is fazed by what the Koreans are doing," said an NEC Corp. spokesman. "We still plan to increase our 16-Mbit DRAM production slightly between now and March, but the big push is to increase 64-Mbit DRAM output to a million units/month by the end of March." A Toshiba Corp. executive said a price war at the 64-Mbit density has broken out between NEC and Samsung, taking prices down to the $50 range. Go To Previous Story Go To Next Story Back to This Week's News