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To: Jenna who wrote (10459)6/22/1998 7:10:00 AM
From: LastShadow  Respond to of 120523
 
Pre-Holiday Effect

The market's pre-holiday syndrome is worth noting at this time. Stock prices generally act favorably on the two days preceeding traditional nine holidays for which the markets close. The best guess for why this seasonality occurs is that traders are lightening up the short side of their portfolios just prior to the long weekends to hedge against news and other factors.

The cumulatively compounded percentage market gain for the two days just prior to the Independence Day Holiday are as follows (based on 50 years of history):

Day 1 (Wednesday, July 2nd) = two days before the day off) = 13.3% gain

Day 2 (Thursday, July 3rd) = the day just preceeding the day off) = 37.3% gain

The Independence Day seasonality is the third most productive holiday
period, behind only Labor Day and New Years.

One times entry into the market BEFORE this two day period starts and exits at its peak on the afternoon of Day 2 or for holds of anywhere between a few days and long term. This a particularly good time to invest in longer term gainers also.

As for intraday patterns on those two days, historically big drops are
more volatile due to higher trader action and less fund involvement (i.e., they won't go level for as long as usual moving up or down again), and the late afternoon trading will be more active/significant than usual.

lastshadow



To: Jenna who wrote (10459)6/22/1998 10:16:00 AM
From: John J H Kim  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 120523
 
SHOO, CACOA breaking out of high this morn.