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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (13631)	6/22/1998 6:41:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

"The key is capital flows"...how important that statement is!!!!! With Bill Seidman advising Japanese officials and with his pointing to the outcome of our bailouts..they might not be afraid to uncover their over 500,000,000 billion(I think..just guessing) in bad loans.. then when the "fear" evaporates..watch technology,oil,etc to start up big time again..that is also why I am guessing that our market won't enter into a bear(besides low interest rates..even if they go to seven percent and because of no threat of recession currently looming) but will just rotate again and again and again..but if Japan does start up..that should be bullish for gold.. (I am guessing that year2000 glitches could cause a huge drop in markets..and a huge spike in gold--inflation will probably be the bugaboo to cause the recession when the Fed will have to tighten bigger time)(also I have heard no talk about protectism except from stainless steel producers here who are protesting all the dumping..protectism could rock the boat but with Rubin at helm..don't think that is a danger at all) also if anybody knows what the Japanese debt level currently is,I would appreciate it..they could always release their debt level and compare it to the 5 trillion of ours.. bobby

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (13631)	6/22/1998 9:17:00 PM
From: Investor-ex!	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116753

George, If a reflating Japanese economy was able to attract large amounts of capital, the yen would rise, not fall. Thanks for your insight. Well, if capital flows are reversed appreciably through reflation (though this particular effort may end up simply being inflationary) then perhaps the stated objectives of a strengthening Yen and a weakening US$ could come to pass. If successful, a large part of the capital flowing into Japan would be flowing out of the US, which, incidentally, would lead to a rise in dollar-priced world commodities and launch a reinforcing cycle of weakening US Dollars.