To: yard_man who wrote (35578 ) 6/22/1998 3:53:00 PM From: Knighty Tin Respond to of 53903
Tip, I resent the idea that my mood is ever good. Not according to my mood ring. <G> Yes, I do occasionally buy options that expire in the same month as the purchase. That isn't my usual style, but I probably do everything once in a while. Most often I buy such options under one of two circumstances: 1. When I expect some event, earnings, book to bill, Money Supply (you can tell how old I am by my quoting the last two. Those haven't been factors for years <G>), govt. report, industry report, dog and pony show, etc. to produce a zero/one situation and I think I have a handle on whether it is zero or one. 2. They are selling so cheap that I can't resist the temptation. Still, my standard game is to buy further out. For example, right now, though I own some July puts on MU, if I were to buy new ones, they would be Octobers, or, if I felt my oats, Augusts. I figure that there are reasons, even if they are bogus, why a stock is at a certain price where I don't think it should be, either too high or too low. And it sometimes takes time for reality to cut through those reasons in the mind of investors. For example, with MU at $95, we had the "top analyst," Whittington, claiming that they would earn $17 a share in 1997; you had the manager of the largest mutual fund saying in Barron's that he owned a ton and was buying more; and the company was reporting near term earnings that were nominally very strong. Industry pimps were saying that capacity would never catch up wity demand. And, of course, the technicians saw $130 on their squiggly lines. It took time for the market to figure out that Whittington was brain dead, that Vinick was conning them, and that MU's eps were temporary, at best. They still haven't figured out that TA is nonsense or that industry pimps are not as trustworthy as their counterparts who drive long Caddies and work the streets. <G> Even after reality hit, it took a long time for the permabulls to cease their panic buying. I like to give the market time to work through the crapola with my long options. MB