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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (24501)	6/22/1998 12:47:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Respond to of 95453

Tulvio, I agree. I bought some more SII, FGII, DO this am., amd will sell most everything after OPEC. I will keep a small postion, but like RGinPG I NEED a mental health break andhope to never see a driller again. (But I probably will). Dave

To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (24501)	6/22/1998 12:51:00 PM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 95453

I believe oil is poised for a short term pop as result of the meeting and the new production quotas that will emerge therefrom. This will undoubtedly soon be followed by resumed drift to lower oil prices over several months until the excess oil is worked off. Tulvio, that is the likely scenario. The last day activity for the July contract is quite a contrast with the expiration collapse of the June contract last month. Holders who don't want to accept delivery are surely out by now so I expect the contract to maintain its gains since it expires at 3:10 EDT. Tomorrow could be a very good day. The length of the pop will depend on whether OPEC surprises to the upside or downside of projected cuts. If they disappoint to the downside, the reversal could be swift and brutal. Either way, the meeting will be followed by the usual skepticism about quota cheating and a probable re-test of the lows. John

To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (24501)	6/22/1998 1:04:00 PM
From: Kevin Stull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

To all, I live in Trinidad and have met several people from the various oil services companies working down here: TDW and RIG to name two. One a boat captain and the other an engineer, both indicate that utilization and day rates are as high as they have been and appear stable going forward. Driving this activity is a shortage of boats and rigs to meet demand. Another engineer from Conoco, also working down here, says that to stop drilling in response to oil prices is like cutting off one's nose in spite on one's face. In many cases it would simply be too expensive to curtail operations already underway and considering that these projects span several years before oil reaches the market adjusting activity based on the current price of oil makes no sense. Although this survey is for from scientific, it does seem to bode well for 2Q performance at the very least. Does anyone have access to Zack's or First Call to see if there has been any downward revisons to earnings this quarter for the drillers? Thanks.

To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (24501)	6/22/1998 1:24:00 PM
From: NucTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

>>I see this as an opportunity of lightening up on holdings<< Done. Sold my CDG around 12 noon for a nice profit. What we're all assuming, of course, is that OPEC is powerless to affect the demand side of the equation, and that fundamentals will prevail. They could pull a major surprise. I just don't want to bet on it. Rather go to Vegas and play craps.....