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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: andy kelly who wrote (20652)	6/23/1998 2:26:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

re: " Are you nibbling on AMAT LEAPS yet? The 01Jan 30's look tempting to me at 10 1/2" No. I'm nibbling at 2001 INTC 100s. Bought some at 12.5, and some at 10. I think INTC has a more secure floor, and I'm unlikely to get the LEAPS cheaper. As for AMAT LEAPS: when the 2001 40s became available on 5-18-98, they sold for 13 3/8 (ask price).They are now available for about half that price, while the stock has only declined from 37 to 28. Buying these puns a premium on patience and timing. No puts intended. AMAT was in a 32-40 trading range for 3 1/2 months (Feb. to mid-May). Then it stair-stepped down, and is now in the process of establishing a new range, probably 26-32. This trading range will last at least a couple of months, and may last till the end of the year. What are the chances that the stock is going straight up from here, after just touching 26 once, and you'll never get a better price? The chances are zip. The stock has never moved that way, while forming tops or bottoms. We need to form a base. So, even if you think that this trading range represents the bottom, there is no hurry. Wait a bit, and get a bit of certainty. This is an easy decision. The hard decision is once the stock has formed a base. Lets say its mid-July, or mid-August, and the stock is still at about 30? What now? I won't repost my reasons for thinking the next step will be down, (to a 20-26 trading range??; for the rest of 1998???). I think the thread is getting tired of hearing it, and I have nothing new to say, and nothing has changed. Anyway, I'll re-evaluate then and decide. And if the stock hits 20, I'm likely to get the 2001 40s for 3-4$. Now that would be yummy.