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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (10419)	6/23/1998 4:39:00 PM
From: Marconi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Hello Mr. Barker: Are you or anyone following the distribution of trades in AMZN over the recent months? If this is the process underway, I would expect the block traders to be in with their traffic, and another chunk at the individual level. A two mode distribution in trades. If the squeeze is on anyone more than 10% of their portfolio short, or under 7 digits capitalization, then for the duration since the dearth of shares to short, there should be a component of small trades of covering that should disappear when they are squeezed out of their positions. Anyway, some little hump in the trading pattern distribution should disappear, the rise should decelerate, and that should be or could be the turning point. I was trying to wing it without analysis around 75 -80, but with the response in internet stock mania this week, further money is likely to chase into this area, so another step up will have to be digested first. I am also not running numbers yet with trading data as I probably should. There is trading structure to this market that has not been talked about yet as it could be. In general, the retracement down should occur more rapidly than the run up -- times that can melt illusions faster than folks can absorb it has really changed.... Advantage, full-timers.... Best regards, m