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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (5980)	6/22/1998 7:48:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 10921

Jess, did you read the recent survey in Japan that 70% of the Japanese would agree to a lower pension to help ease the burden on the next generation!!!! Can you imagine if we conduct a similar survey in the US to lower social security payments? This is the difference between Americans and Japanese. I am still willing to bet that when Japan eventually orchestrate their rescue package, it will not be anything similar to what we did with the RTC. In fact, the more I think about it, I am not sure if the problem is the same. As for jumping in now, I really hate to be caught on the wrong side of Bob Rubin. Not that I am a currency trader but he has already demonstrated his ability to influence the market. He was top notch trader before. Now he has insider knowledge that he can use to his full advantage. I think I am going to see if I can just ride his coat tail, long if he intervenes and short at the first sign that he is pulling out. Ramsey

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (5980)	6/22/1998 8:11:00 PM
From: JMD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Jess, I have been reading your posts with great interest for some months now. They are most informative, and I, sadly, agree with your description of the utter paralysis in the Japanese political machinery. You may also well be entirely correct in predicting that that paralysis could lead to the world's #2 economy slipping under the waves, with god knows what unpleasant consequences for the rest of the planet. That said, do you think that Japan may survive simply because the rest of the G7 members will decide that it is too big to fail? I realize that the other members cannot dictate terms to a sovereign nation who must remain responsible for actual implementation of what will be radical political reform. But what if Rubin and friends practiced a little private debt repudiation as in: you no sell your government bond holdings unless . . . .Or, substitute your own form of arm twisting. Frankly, it seems to me that the Japanese people may be very close to smelling the coffee and realizing that the system has just stopped working and that genuine, and much overdue, realignment may be a reality at last. Apologies in advance for what are likely helplessly optimistic musings, and thank you again for your writings. Mike Doyle

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (5980)	6/22/1998 10:09:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Jess, OT (kind of) This is going to be the test case. If all hell breaks loose, you can bet the Japanese are going back to the drawing board while sitting on their hands indefinitely. Ramsey TOKYO (Nikkei)-The stock of Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan went limit down to 62 yen on Monday in trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, a drop of 50 yen from its Friday close at 112 yen. Institutional and corporate investors sold off shares of the bank - which is considering restructuring plans, including a merger - in large volume. The stock of Daiwa Bank (8319), which has been rumored a possible LTCB merger partner, also dropped, reaching its lowest value of the year. Other bank issues showed similar declines. In addition, the stock of Dai-Ichi Securities Co. (8612), in which LTCB is the second largest shareholder, fell to a record low. The Nikkei Stock Average, however, showed little reaction to the falling prices. Shares of corporations in other industries, including such troubled sectors as real estate and construction, remained comparatively sound, suggesting confidence that Japan will make reconstruction of the financial system a priority. As a result of the declining bank stocks, the yield on interest-bearing bank debentures rose. The yield on June-issued five-year bonds by Industrial Bank of Japan (8302) reached 1.71% in trading between dealers, making the yield about 0.7% higher than that on comparable government bonds, the largest yield gap ever recorded. (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Tuesday morning edition)