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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (5195)	6/22/1998 9:58:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

Being somewhat despairing of the bull case for biotechs right now, I've recently been increasing my offsetting short positions. I've been short THRX and NASI for several weeks, and my position in THRX finally saw me on the right side of one of those mysterious 3+ point declines today. While I have no quarrel with the use of radioactive seeds for prostate cancer therapy, I think the valuations here are just too rich. There has been a seed shortage for several years now, and prices have skyrocketed. Amersham, one of the big suppliers, has had production problems which are rumored now to be on the way to being solved. I see no reason why these seeds aren't going to become commodity items, in which case THRX and NASI are both overpriced. NASI has had a huge run over the last few years which has to make it vulnerable to profit taking at some point. Don't expect its price to move rationally in the near term, though. Any comments on these two? Any other ideas for biotech shorts? HMSC is played out. ORG has come down some and is a little too popular as a short for my taste, although I did make a little on the way down. ENMD is too much of a crap shoot for my taste - I don't want to be caught on the wrong side of a 30 point move. Peter