To: Zeev Hed who wrote (35600 ) 6/22/1998 11:14:00 PM From: Earlie Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
Zeev: Glad you brought this up. I darned near fell off my chair in glee as I read this item. Nothing like going out in one big glorious last fling. My favourite annuity just got even better. Read your comments with interest with respect to the quality of the MU-TXN deal, but see it in a different light. TXN paid dearly to exit a business it sees as a dead end for the foreseeable, and they know the business. MU responded as it had to, given the cash carrot. Sure doesn't make much sense to add shuttered capacity, (on top of plenty already on the books) and foreign exposure when the business is in such a mess.....that is unless one has no other alternative to a near term chapter 11. For several quarters, the analysts have fed the public hope and hype that the memory business is turning....("you've seen the bottom" etc.). We've called this utter garbage for many months based on a visibly saturated PC market. This supposed turn is not in the cards, at least until we can see a serious reduction in production capacity. Even as we discuss this, the Taiwanese remain committed to "taking advantage of the difficulties of our competitors" through continued expansion (although even they are worried about the continuing weak order book). The glut that few saw coming and that most would wish away, is here for an extended stay. The question for me is how long can MU survive? It's hard to project anything other than increased costs given the new plants, new debts and lower ASP's, and there is no relief in selling prices in sight. The company will lose more in Q4 than in Q3 and sooner or later, the inventory will have to be written off. I figure the cash squeeze comes in less than six months, even with the new cash. One last consideration....who really owns this company now? I think it is the debt holders. Sooner or later one of them will tug on the chain and the poor souls trading the common will awake to a "no bid" situation. Another Zenith in the making as we see it. Best, Earlie