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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pt who wrote (24549)	6/23/1998 10:25:00 AM
From: mph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Paul: I disagree with your lottery analysis. People do buy more lottery tickets when the jackpot is higher. Each drawing is a one shot deal. You either take the chance or not in the week of the drawing. Risk/reward analysis of the type you opine works in that temporal setting. I cannot believe that oil company execs get all hot and bothered to run out and drill a well that may yield oil in five years based on the spot prices at the time the decision is made. It seems to me that the more realistic effect on drilling activity in this scenario is whether the company can afford to drill now for profits later when the current profits are down due to the lower price of oil. So, the current low prices affect the company's ability to finance the drilling as opposed to offering some psychological disincentive to drilling when prices are down. Just my 2 centavos. mph