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Gold/Mining/Energy : Geodex Resources - GXM.V (was Agate Bay ABE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hugh M. who wrote (160)	6/24/1998 12:58:00 PM
From: Baywall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 210

If there is a new cycle, lets all work together as it progresses. Input by all will be appreciated and will provide support for others who are left alone with IR and a lack of news. Others could add insight into any unusual price/volume behaviour. Geodex's secretary gets calls from concerned shareholders who see rumours on this thread. These were later found to be false, but took time to phone the company, the VSE, Inmet and Marathon Securities. This also takes up shareholder and her time. For Chimborazo I would like to see: 1.A financially strong JV partner if Inmet defaults. 2.If project its to be continued, at least initial financing arrangements should be ready at the time of news release. 3.Softer acquisition terms given that LT copper prices have declined. The original contract was drawn up when prices were at $1.20, now industry estimate is 90 cents. 4.Prospects of financially taking the project to the bankable feasibility report stage. The industry has many creative financing methods which do not involve excessive dilution. The worst scenario is that Cyprus places the property back into inventory until copper prices improve. Originally for Joseph Lee, Some reasons Kaiser (Nov96) listed why the market did not respond to Oct.3/96 news release favorably. 1.Agate did not have financing in hand. 2.Its NPV analysis (number crunching model) was not ready. 3.Let the whisper campaign drive the stock too high. (I maintain only official news releases be permitted). 4.Timing was poor, when most juniors undergo a seasonal downtrend in the third quarter. 5.Expensive deal. 6.Depressed copper prices made project marginal. The operating costs per lb. was 54 cents. Margin of safety concerns I assume. 7.Financing problems with undue dilution concerns. Ignoring the drop in copper prices as a reason, we are left with the others. However, the main selloff occurred before Oct.3/96 and the only known event was the decline in copper prices. Since most play the VSE on a short-term basis and don't care whether a mine will be built 3 years from now or LT copper prices. Unless insider information was released #1,5,7 could have not been known. The most Jason told me was that at least a $2.50 value potential was possible, this was in August 1996. But this would have not triggered selling. Kaiser noted a whisper campaign existed, why? The firm did not profit by this nor attempt to take advantage of the higher prices. I thought the $1.30 push was to get financing at those levels before the news release and contracts were signed. Wrong guess. There was a private placement on May 16/96 for which warrants were exchanged for shares and then the shares sold on Sept.16/96. I am not sure who benefited from all of this or who was involved in the placement. Maybe watch for future placements and subsequent price rises especially when the warrants can be exercised. Some profit potential may exist. I still go by my TA. It was successful in getting me in on July 11/96 with a short term buy signal Later, on Sept.16/96, in hindsight, a clear LT sell signal was provided. This may be akin to reading tea leaves and so far has not proved the buy signals I claim exist. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I find it the most objective way to analyze VSE stocks in absence of any news. It worked for me in the past. If anyone acted on my statements and genuinely feels strongly, please contact me at my address listed in my profile. I will explain my interpretations. There was no intent to hype this stock. Use "stories" rather than "lies", unless proven otherwise. Strong and bitter words indicate a weak cause especially when money has been lost and nothing can be substantiated. LVL