To: John Mansfield who wrote (18962 ) 6/23/1998 2:02:00 AM From: John Mansfield Respond to of 31646
'WSJ - 'Y2K' Is Scarier Than The Alarmists Think? asked in the TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) Q&A Forum -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Did anyone read the Wall Street Journal article "'Y2K' Is Scarier Than The Alarmists Think"? I don't get the WSJ, and was curious to see what they said... Asked by Phil (pperucci@mindspring.com) on June 19, 1998. Answers ...oops... I believe it was in the June 18th paper. Answered by Phil (pperucci@mindspring.com) on June 19, 1998. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yeah, Phil, I read it. It's garbage. To illustrate, here are some quotes. "These experts [Yardeni, etc.] may be exaggerating the economic threat. In many respects the Year 2000 Problem... is much less complicated than natural disasters like hurricanes or earthquakes. Unlike these events, we know when Y2K will strike. And we know exactly where to look to solve most of the problem - in old programming code." The author, Bruce D. Berkowitz, conveniently forgot the 25 billion microchips contained in embedded systems, it seems. "...$50 billion [projected US cost for fixing Y2K]... is a large sum of money, but it is only a small fraction of the nation's $7.3 trillion gross domestic product. So the effect on the economy as a whole should be tolerable." "Debugging the world's information systems will take time, effort and money, but the task is not overwhelming. The trick is to make sure that businesses and individuals understand the problem, and then put their self-interest to work." Mr. Berkowitz here omits several pertinent facts: We do not have time, there are not enough programmers to do the job, and many top managers are not willing to spend the money necessary. Plus it's already too late for 'self-interest' to be much of a factor. "So the good news is that the threat does not need to be as dire as Mr. Yardeni and others fear. Alas, the bad news is that there is an even greater threat related to Y2K that no one seems to be thinking aobut yet. Simply put, Y2K will create one of the greatest opportunities for information warfare, crime, sabotage and terrorism we have ever encountered." He goes on to say that many of the programmers brought in to help fix Y2K could be foreign operatives who are planning to cause havoc or steal information. He finishes with "they're probably at work even as we speak." Sounds like Mr. Berkowitz is watering the seeds Clinton planted with all the recent talk about 'cyber-terrorism.' This article is either a smokescreen or optimistic blather. Either way, ignore it. Answered by Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com) on June 19, 1998. .... From www.yourdon.com discussion board