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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johny who wrote (24557)	6/23/1998 10:04:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I wish I could share your optimism concerning TCMS, but... I fail to see any good news in the release. Most service companies all ready had this upcoming quarters business backlogged or contracted months prior. The fact that they expect a 40% short fall for the fiscal year after hitting Q1 & Q2 means this entire 40% shortfall is to happen in the next 2 quarters; means the next 2 quarters are a nightmare compared to prior estimates/expectations. This shows that they were decimated in a low crude price enviroment... they obviously did NOT have much of a backlog of business either - with no carry-over to salvage Q3 & Q4. With a yet unproven synergy, no substantial backlog of business and flat year over year earnings; irregardless of crude prices - they have shown a glaring weakness of a very high sensitivity to crude prices and the street pummeled them for it ! I am less than optimistic... personally; a ''weak hold''...on watchlist to sell on any further weakness... way too many service sector companies did much better than ''flat'' year over year earnings and will grow earnings at a much greater pace than TCMS is now estimating... if they can not match or exceed their peers performance - why should I continue to invest in them ? Lack of peer performance is a strong reason to sell IMHO. I have to ask myself - when the tide turns will TCMS keep pace with its peers in EPS growth or get PE expansion from the street ? ... just don't see a rosy picture near term.