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To: Zack Lyon who wrote (15059)6/23/1998 1:39:00 PM
From: Rick Jamison  Respond to of 50264
 
Ten Percent Of Int'l Phone Traffic To Be
IP-Based In 2002 - Report

June 23, 1998

LONDON, ENGLAND, Newsbytes via NewsEdge Corporation : The apparent apathy of
telecommunications carriers to the threat of Voice over IP (Internet Protocol) Internet
telephony services will get a jolt tomorrow when Datamonitor releases the results of its
survey into the business.

Timed to coincide with day one of the Networks '98 show in Birmingham, England, the
report -- entitled "IP Telephony Markets in Europe and the US: Beyond Internet Voice"
-- predicts that around 10 percent of the world's voice traffic will be carried over the
Internet within four years.

According to the report, carriers such as Deutsche Telekom, AT&T, and Telecom
Finland are already offering Voice over IP services, and new operators such as Qwest
and Level 3 are creating fiber optic networks with these IP telephony services in mind.

Datamonitor's report also predicts that IP telephony gateway revenues will reach $2.5
billion in 2002, and that IP telephony will account for almost one percent of the total
telecommunications market by 2002 with revenues of over $3 billion by the end of that
year.

According to the firm, in the short term, fax and intra-enterprise international and long
distance calls will begin to migrate to IP. However, as competitive providers such as
Qwest and Level 3 and cable operators continue to expand their networks, local and
video calls will also proliferate.

Interestingly, Datamonitor notes that the international voice market in particular
presents a huge opportunity for Internet telephony service providers. Profit margins, the
report says, are high for these services, but for relatively small investments, smaller
operators can offer global services at vastly reduced prices, simply by using the
Internet.

Delving deeper into the report reveals that IP will account for over 10 percent of
international telephony traffic in Europe and the US by 2002. Although long distance
and local IP telephony, the report notes, will make less of an impact over the same
period, they are still set for rapid growth.

IP telephony revenues in Europe, meanwhile, will develop at a faster pace than those in
the US. Despite the recent deregulation, Datamonitor says that telephony prices are still
relatively high in Europe, creating opportunities for service providers which can take
advantage of the pent-up demand which exists for cheap services.

According to Datamonitor, Finland, Sweden, Germany, and the US are presently the
most advanced countries in terms of IP telephony. However, by 2002, revenues by
country will be ranked roughly by the size of the overall telecommunications market,
because an increasing number of incumbent providers will be forced to offer the service
to compete with new market entrants.

Gavin Parnaby, an analyst with Datamonitor, said that the voice switch vendors face a
big challenge as they attempt to compete with Cisco and the other data- oriented
suppliers in the Voice over IP market.

"The hardware suppliers that will thrive will be those which offer 'one-stop- shopping'
capabilities to global carriers," he said.

Datamonitor's Web site is at datamonitor.com .

Reported by Newsbytes News Network, newsbytes.com .