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To: Charles A. King who wrote (9611)	6/23/1998 9:43:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 13091

Charles, were I to possess a smidgin of your's and Norm's competent talent for prose, Tom Clancy would tremble in his shoes. Regards, Ron

To: Charles A. King who wrote (9611)	6/23/1998 10:00:00 AM
From: Charles A. King	Respond to of 13091

Riding this horse a little further, we have Christian Armenia annexing Nagorno-Karabakh, which is physically separate and surrounded by Muslimic Azerbaijan. All this is astride the Caspian oil field/pipeline area, and involves Turkey and ultimately the USA. Armenian Karabakh threat a danger to peace Turkey 08:48 a.m. Jun 23, 1998 Eastern ANKARA, June 23 (Reuters) - Turkey on Tuesday criticised Armenia's threat last week to formally annex Azerbaijan's breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh as a danger to regional peace. ''We condemn Armenia's statement saying they would annex Nagorno-Karabakh ... this statement could lead to extraordinarily dangerous results in terms of regional peace,'' a Turkish Foreign Ministry statement said. Armenia last week threatened to appropriate Nagorno-Karabakh if Azerbaijan did not accept compromises on halting the decade-long dispute over the territory. The surprise threat was the first time Yerevan had said officially it might consider annexing the mountainous region. It marked a hardening of its position since Robert Kocharyan, former leader of the mostly Armenian-populated Karabakh region, was elected president in March. U.S., French and Russian efforts to achieve a negotiated settlement to the conflict have been deadlocked since then. Turkey, which has strong ethnic and linguistic links with Azerbaijan, placed responsibility for the impasse at Yerevan's door. ''The responsibility for not reaching a solution to the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh lies with Armenia,'' the Turkish statement said. The United States said on Monday Armenia's threat was unacceptable. ''With respect to that threat, we find the statement to that effect extremely disturbing,'' State Department spokesman James Rubin said. The Armenians of Karabakh, which is completely surrounded by Azeri territory, broke from Baku's rule in 1988 in an ethnic conflict which presaged the final break-up of the Soviet Union. About 35,000 people were killed in the fighting before a ceasefire was reached in 1994. Turkey, a member of NATO, has imposed an embargo on its eastern neighbour in support of Azerbaijan since the early 1990s and trains Azeri officers in its military academies. Armenia fears Azerbaijan could use its income from oil production to rebuild its armed forces and attempt to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute by force. Turkey, backed by the United States, is lobbying Azerbaijan for the right to build a pipeline to carry Caspian oil to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Azerbaijan has ruled out full independence for Karabakh or allowing the territory to become part of Armenia but has offered a high degree of autonomy. Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication and redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. infoseek.com:80/Content?arn=a1067LBY454reulb-19980623&qt=turkey&col=NX&kt=A&ak=news1486

To: Charles A. King who wrote (9611)	6/23/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: Charles A. King	Respond to of 13091

A point I intended to make in my previous screed was that while the Iranian moderates are popular, the bad guys are in control of the seats of power such as the national guard and police. Khatami has to walk on political eggshells. The median age of the Iranian population is only 25 now and it is the young people who are the most liberal and outward looking. Even though the government tried to warn against public demonstrations, there were spontaneous, happy demonstrations in public after our defeat by Iran in World Cup play. It has been 20 years since the Shah was overthrown. Since then tens of thousands of Iranians were killed in the war with Iraq and the Iranian economy is still in bad shape. A whole new generation has come along with a different perspective. It is only a matter of time until the old conservatives are replaced. I think there is reason to hope for positive change in Iran. Charles