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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (249)	6/23/1998 1:29:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Susan, When will the spanner hit the works? I'd like to know the answer to that myself. When you ask when will Japan or the UK sell Treasuries are you referring to the government or to individual investors as a class or their proxies (funds etc)? If you are referring to the govts, they are unlikely to sell unless they need to intervene in their currencies or to change reserves to Euros. So it will be a currency related decision not a fixed income related decision. If you are talking the investor community, part of the bullish case for US assets is that Japanese trust accounts have been unable to diversify internationally because of regulations. Those regulations have been largely repealed and these investors have indicated a desire to diversify market exposure internationally. So the feeling is that they are underinvested in the US and likely to increase that exposure. I personally believe that as the global situation currently stacks up we are indeed heading towards a 5% 30 year bond. How long it stays there will be another question. When you ask about the bear's awakening are you asking about bonds or equities? Henry