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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ray Hughes who wrote (1201)	6/23/1998 4:38:00 PM
From: Bill Murphy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1911

Hi Ray, You may be dead right in which case I am dead period from a business standpoint. Your points were well taken for the dead gold case. We just have a different view and only time will tell which one is the correct one. We come at this from a supply - demand standpoint. Our work shows us demand is hundreds of tonnes greater than is known. This demand was met by many sources, one of which we believe is the Dutch Central Bank unloading ahead of the EMU. We also figure Asia knocked $60 off the gold price. In our opinion, these shocks to the market are ending; at least the major Asian liquidation is over and our sources told us that, as of very early May, there was only 200-250 tonnes of CB selling left to go. If there is any left, it should be taken out by a producer or the next upswing. We believe the price will go up to ration the natural commodity deficit that will then exist., even with gold lending and selling going on. In an interesting comment today, LBMA Chairman, Peter Vava, said" central banks would become net buyers of gold". We strongly believe an Asian central bank is in there now and has been for some time now absorbing the spec selling producer hedging. If the Asian buying continues, and the CB selling is very much on the wane, then it is hard for me to see gold not going to $370 to $400 within a year. And nobody paying any attention as it rises. Bill