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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (10658)	6/23/1998 3:22:00 PM
From: Sonki	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

aol going to 110? now? i m w/out aol in ira. jump back in? msft where will it go after 100? radio is blasing away w. win 98.

To: Chris who wrote (10658)	6/23/1998 4:00:00 PM
From: Electric	Respond to of 42787

Chris, DELL +5 what a great day, my 95 call is about in the money. I also want AOL.. tell me your take and when you want to enter. AOL smells of split.. Also I think MSFT can move to 110 easily given good market conditions in general. The media 98 circus will gain attention to the stock and the fundies are already slurping up shares. A good amount of larger block buys (I think) today. HD off of its highs, interesting to watch and see. Amazing 5 days, awesome...

To: Chris who wrote (10658)	6/23/1998 4:36:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Respond to of 42787

I think the market's next cycle down will be very revealing. We are in a very volatile market. Money in volume has been moving in and out of positions during the shorter term. This in part is caused by program trading, hedge fund activity, and even the short term focus many funds have been taking in the current market. This type of market makes it very difficult to evaluate on a technical basis. Money flow and sentiment are usually very helpful here. But the positioning over the shorter term being demonstrated by the funds can mislead too, and the market sentiment of the public speculator players can prevail over the short term and help move the market. Still, given that the market over the longer term reflects the fundamental nature of businesses and the economy, IMO the fundamental picture has not been able to support a new bull run for a period of time now. News of a fundamental nature still has been coming out to support this overview of the market. This has been particularly true with the techs. And the bullish spirit has a very difficult time dealing with bad news. The longer this market remains in a holding pattern with a pattern of failed breakouts, the more time the market will have to think and consider the reasons why. A failed breakout on this run up can provide this time for thought by the players in the market. Technically the market has in its broader pattern been making lower highs and lower lows as it has been breaking through critical longer term supports. However, the S&P 500 technically has been holding up the best. I think one important aspect of the market to be watched is the overall technical picture that defines key longer term S&Rs and direction, and to determine what conditions would need to change in the market for a bullish longer term technical picture to be invalidated. It is sometimes very difficult to see the overall pattern a very volatile market is making. That is why it is helpful to establish improtant milestones based on the longer term technical picture of the market which includes key S&R levels. Another is money flow. As long as there is money available and mutual funds are willing to move the money into the market, the market will rise. Once the broader pattern of money flow abates, where the funds are not willing to step into the picture each time the market has an interim bottom, then we can be in for a longer term bear market. So I think we will remain in a trading range that is IMO developing toward lower prices until something of a significant nature changes in any of the areas that I have mentioned above. I do not remember seeing such a volatile market, where the volatility can be supported by volume like this, such as what is possible through hedge fund activity. But then I have not followed the market as closely as I have been over the past few years. Just some thoughts. Comments welcome! Bob Graham