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To: John McPherson who wrote (1392)	6/23/1998 10:41:00 PM
From: Valueman	Respond to of 29987

Here is the most accurate assessment of Zenit launch reliability. This is historical, and completely misleading if one is trying to predict the chance of failure of tonight's launch. Like someone said previously, it is difficult to use statistics to predict launch success rates(kind of like using TA in investing). There have been 28 launches since 1985. Seven of those were failures. Five were definitley confirmed failures, two are in dispute but likely failed to reach an orbit(Russians claim they were suborbital test flights). The second stage has also had the problem of exploding after dispensing the payload and littering space with debris. This did not affect the sats. This problem has been corrected. You can be sure that the RD-171 first stage motor has also been improved in comparison to the RD-170 used early on. Since the 1992 failure, there has been one failure in 11 launches. That last failure was on May 20, 1997, and is the source of all this hoopla. So, the historical success rate is 75%, the modern rate is 91%, the future rate is ???? The significance of all this is ????