Janybird, I don't know why I have undertaken to educate you on this issue, call it a character flaw. For the purposes of this discussion only, I'll concede that no one can estimate market share. (I don't really believe this, but we'll leave that aside for the moment, and concentrate on Maisels' estimate of potential market size.)
You are correct, Maisels expressed an opinion, which he prefaced by saying he did not know how markets are calculated. Therefore, since he does not know how markets are calculated, his opinion as to the size of the market is worth very little. If he had expressed an opinion on something which he is trained in and has experience in, his opinion might be worth something. But he did not. He plainly stated he did not know how the size of markets are calculated, but then expressed an opinion on market size. What is that opinion worth? ZERO.
His credentials speak to his medical knowledge, not to anything about the size of the potential market for a medical device. Markets are about numbers, not medicine. He is trained in medicine, not market numbers, and he said so.
To illustrate my point, let's assume you are the foremost medical authority on birth control. You know everything there is to know about methods, function, failure rates, convenience of use, etc. A company then asks you to then give your opinion as to the size of the market for a new birth control device. You say "I do not know anything about markets, but I'll give you my opinion anyway." And then you read something given to you by that company, without any independent research on your own, and base your opinion on that document alone. How comfortable would you be with that opinion? If you would be entirely comfortable, expressing an opinion on a subject area which you know nothing about, calculating market size, simply because you know everything there is to know about birth control from a medical standpoint, then you are kidding yourself.
Maisels did exactly that. He said he did not know how markets are calculated, and then he said based on his review of business plans, which he did not write, indicate the market is 16 million. Janybird, they didn't need Maisels to regurgitate what was in the business proposals, those numbers were already used by the company in its estimate. Having Maisels read the report and simply read what it said added nothing. He did not say "based on my knowledge and experience," he said "based on the business plans." His credentials don't assist his estimate one iota.
You point out in your post that Maisels also stated that "the majority" of babies in the world are the potential market. That is not a market number, it's a vague and general statement on which no company could ever rely in making an estimate for the market potential. It has no value.
Similarly, Maisels said "As there are 132,418,000 babies born annually throughout the world (1996 data from UNICEF) it is reasonable to assume that about 90% or 119,176,200 annually will be potential subjects for a bilirubin determination." Again, he is not trained to estimate markets, and yet he does so, but qualifies his statement that "it strikes him" as a large market. Janybird, even you have to concede that 90 percent of all babies born on this planet is a gross overestimation of the potential market for this device. One trip to any third world country will tell you that nowhere near 90 percent of all infants born in this world will have the services of any kind of doctor, with or without a BiliTest. Maisels pulled this number off the top of his head and you know it.
You claim Maisels didn't say he was unqualified. What does his statement "I cannot claim expertise in how markets are calculated" mean to you? Please explain this. I mean it. Explain what this means as far as his ability to give a reliable opinion on the size of a potential market.
I cannot understand how you can come to any conclusion other than that he is not qualified to estimate potential market size. Using my example above, it is as if you said "most people need birth control, so I believe that the market is very large" and pull a number off the top of your head. No independent research, just your opinion based on no training in markets, and no experience in estimating markets. That is not an opinion as to the size of the market based on anything but your medical knowledge, and is not a market evaluation in any traditional sense. Alternatively, you could base your opinion by reading verbatim from a business plan that no one else can verify. If that is a credible opinion as the size of the potential market, then you and I have very different ideas of credibility.
Simply put, Maisels indicated he did not know how markets are calculated. Therefore, I can conclude that he is not qualified to calculate the size of a potential market. There can be no other conclusion.
Moreover, your statement that he has no expertise, but his opinion is of great value, is ludicrous. If one has no expertise, how can his opinion be of great value? Experts are qualified to give opinions only if they have expertise in a particular area, that's why they call them "experts." Maisels is not a market expert, he is a medical expert, and his opinion as to the potential market size is worthless.
CCSI wanted someone to respond to all Asensio's assertions. Although Maisels may have adequately responded to the medical claims, in no way did he adequately respond to the market size claims, which are beyond the area of his expertise. There is no way to for you to claim that Maisels is a market expert. CCSI failed to adequately respond to Asensio's assertions regarding potential market size.
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