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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18678)	6/24/1998 6:45:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 50167

Chuck --off topic Will you kindly post this on our site- thanks- Population explosion and falling 'food growth rate'- The challenge to our very survival! IQBAL LATIF Pakistan is on strategic crossroad; it is in dire need to match its meager food growth with the population explosion. Recommending a Strategy- Ideas for Today and Tomorrow- To achieve this self-sufficiency in food, we need to utilize our inputs efficiently. In 1953 we were 39 million and our wheat production was 2.5 million tons, our population increased to 50.1 million in 1963 whereas wheat production saw an increase to 4 million ton. It was between 1963 and 1973 that we embarked on two major storage dams Mangla and Tarbela as a result we did see an increase of wheat production to 7 million tons, this by 1973 did not reflect the full benefit of the twin storage dams. In 1973 our population increased to 67 million and it was apparent that if no further storage dams are built we will lose the battle of self-sufficiency. In 1983 our population grew to 91 million whereas wheat as a result of better storage of water in Tarbela and Mangla and hence availability of water in shortage months of rabi saw an increase to 11 million ton. By 1993 our population moved up to 124 million whereas the wheat production for first time showed a tendency of 'leveling off' production affect. We produced 15 million ton in 1993 for a population of 124 million. However in 1996 we produced only16 million ton for a population of 134 million, the desired growth was absent although population kept increasing at a much faster rate. This slowing down needs to be checked the food should grow in line with population growth. This is the first flashing sign of danger. Vision Statement- We look forward to next century and find that our population will be 165 million by year 2003. We need minimum of 26 million ton of wheat. We are presently stuck on 17 million ton that also is dependent on vagaries of weather and Mother Nature. We need to avoid catastrophe by planning for future. To increase food resources we need more storage of water that is the only way we can bring more area under cultivation. Kalabagh provides us with additional 6 million-acre feet of water and 3200 Mgw of cheap electricity. The water shall cultivate 2.2 million hectare of new land, .8 million of that land will be in Sind, .61 million will be in Punjab and nearly .5 million each in Balauchistan and N.W.F.P. We also need to increase yields to international standards from 2.1 ton/hectare to 3-ton/ hectare. After Mangla and Tarbela we were able to increase yields from meager 1.2 Ton/Hectare to 2.1 Ton/Hectare. The cruel distorted flow of Indus where 75 % of water flows in 3 months and 25% in next 9 months has to be regulated if famine is to be avoided. We need 40% flow in rabi tenure to get the right yield from our wheat plantations We have a shortage of 15% of water in rabi season. Storage dams can only help elimination of this distortion. Our storage capacity is 15 million-acre feet, it is down to 14 million acre feet as a result of sedimentation due to silting effect. We need a minimum of 28 million-acre feet of storage by 2005. The new storage dams shall provide for increase capacity. Doubling of our storage capacity is not a small task. This gigantic task needs to be taken on hand. It is a difficult option but the time has come to make efforts and educate people so as to reach a national consensus. The harnessing of resources is the problem for Pakistan not the unavailability of resources. Which is the case of most of the water scarce countries. The argument of flow trickling downstream Kotri to naught is nonsense. In Rabi season due to lack of water we see this lower discharge problem downstream Kotri, but that can be avoided as we release regulated water form much bigger storages. In summer season the flow downstream of Kotri has been as high as 78 million-acre feet during high floods to as low as 12 million. The last 12-year record shows an average of 35 million-acre feet downstream Kotri discharge. Our population by 2013 will hit 210 million and we would require 34 million ton of wheat. Today looking at our resource base our dreams to become a great economic power will die prematurely if famine struck us. One million ton of wheat imports costs 250 million $'s, it is ironic that our resource rich nation will be short of ten million ton in next seven years. We would need 2.5 billion $'s of foreign exchange just to cope with our internal demands of food. Can we afford it? No, we cannot. We just don't have the resources. The critics invoked with environmental concerns should know that mass poverty and extensive famine is the worst polluter. One ton of wheat is equivalent to import of 1000 ton of water, 10 million ton of wheat to be imported in next seven years means we would be importing 100 million ton of fresh water. Is it not cruel that on average we throw 35 million-acre feet into sea but due to our inability to harness this rich resource we will import fresh water, since importing wheat is importing fresh water. What a tragedy that Pakistan although being self-sufficient in food and energy is forced to import both. Let us work together to stop this policy of callous neglect. Let us strive to break the status quo. We are not only self sufficient in food but energy also. Indus can produce 38000 Mgw of electricity. The reason of our poverty lies in ignoring the rich resource base of this country for far too long. This cheap energy 1/10th the cost of IPP power can be utilized to start the agriculture and industrial revolution which shall change the destiny of our nation. The menace of waterlogging eating rich Sind lands can be countered by proper drainage through tube wells that are inoperable now due to high cost of electricity. Goal and Objectives- Increase yields to 3 ton / hectare and increase water availability in rabi by minimum of ten million acre feet. Kalabagh is the first step. Next, is to provide cheap electricity instead of expensive option to drain the rising water tables in Sind that has destroyed 4 million acre of prime land. Kalabagh not only provides water in rabi when it is short but will provide cheap electricity to save destruction of land in Sind from water logging. State the desired objective- Self-sufficiency in food and energy is a pre-requisite to make Pakistan a strong economic power. The only route of self-sufficiency in food and energy is to harness our wasted resource base. Today's Situation- We are facing acute shortage of food, we imported 1 billion $ worth of wheat last year we would require another 400 million $'s of wheat this year to fulfill local demand. If this trend continues we will face a huge bill of 2.5 billion dollar/annum within next five years. The choice is ours to let our resources spill unproductively in Arabian Sea or break the shackles of poverty engulfing our 70% of farming class. It is not politics it is about our survival and our future as a successful state. Somalia, Ethiopia and Sudan although being recipient of Nile waters callously wasted resources. The price they paid was in shape of destruction and death we in Pakistan need to look forward and break this cycle self- imposed of poverty. Recommendation- Construction of storage dams and convincing mass populace of the viability of these projects. Kalabagh is just the first. We need to tap this rich resource base of Indus. Nations break and fragment, as result of famine and poverty, to make Pakistan self-sufficient is the only logical step to strengthen Pakistan. Wheat shortage and water shortages along with high priced imported energy through IPP's are menus of disaster. The quarters opposing this self-sufficiency drive are looking at short-term political oriented slogans. Anti -storage dam slogan are backed by 'sources' those who want to see our future bleak. An economically strong Pakistan, where poverty is eradicated and education is universal will only emerge from Pakistan which utilizes its natural resources well.