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Biotech / Medical : Chromatics Color Sciences International. Inc; CCSI -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Quad Sevens who wrote (3489)	6/24/1998 4:26:00 AM
From: Gerald F Bunch	Respond to of 5736

Oh, I forgot to add, for all of you excessively, inflamed, exuberant, adolescents!!!! Back to the lurk mode Ciao Regards BUNCH

To: Quad Sevens who wrote (3489)	6/24/1998 10:26:00 AM
From: Peter V	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5736

Wade - although I have been encouraged to give up, I'll address your claims. Lets' stop selectively quoting Maisels and address the entire CCSI response regarding market size and number of annual bilirubin tests. 1. ''The potential market for all bilirubinometers is extremely limited....'' Dr. Maisels' response is: ''I cannot claim expertise in how ''markets'' are calculated, but the potential for the use of transcutaneous bilirubinometry involves the majority of babies born in the world. Recent data show that as many as 90% of U.S. infants will have clinical jaundice in the first week. While it is true that only babies that appear jaundiced are currently tested for bilirubin, because most infants are now discharged from hospitals before they are 36 hours old, the overwhelming majority of babies who develop jaundice will be jaundiced when they are seen in their pediatrician's offices (or other clinics) several days after birth. Thus the use of noninvasive bilirubin determinations will not be restricted to the hospital, will likely find as much or more use in the outpatient population. As there are 132,418,000 babies born annually throughout the world (1996 data from UNICEF) it is reasonable to assume that about 90% or 119,176,200 annually will be potential subjects for a bilirubin determination. This does not strike me as being an ''extremely limited'' market.'' Wade, his response was to Asensio's assertions that CCSI had grossly overestimated potential market size. Read the caption to the paragraph. He then goes on to talk about markets, and in fact gives a number: 119,176,200. You are right Wade, a market is numbers and dollars. Maisels says he has no expertise in calculating markets and then gives a number anyway. You cannot escape the fact that he is responding here to Asensio's assertion that CCSI overestimated the market. If you are saying that Maisels never estimated market size then you have indeed proved my point: CCSI never responded to Asensio's assertion that CCSI overestimated market size. You state For example, if you were to say the market for modems is extremely limited, I could use my knowledge that there are tens of millions of PC owners and rightfully claim "that does not strike me as an extremely limited market", even though I have no idea how to accurately gauge modem market size. Once again, this was my point. CCSI supposedly gave an accurate gauge of market size, Asensio said it was wrong, and then CCSI responds by quoting a guy that has no business trying to gauge market size. His opinion on what does or does not "strike him" is of no value in responding to the assertion that CCSI overestimated the market. No value whatsoever. 2. CCSI's market size estimates are based on an exaggerated estimate of the number of bilirubin tests performed per year. Dr. Maisels' response is: ''In reviewing market studies submitted in business proposals by international medical companies negotiating with CCSI for the Colormate(TM) TLc-BiliTest(TM) distribution, I have found the estimated number of bilirubin tests in the United States to be over 16,000,000 annually.'' Merely because Maisels reviewed multiple business proposals does not make his answer any more accurate. As I said, he is not using his expertise here. He is merely reading from business proposals on which CCSI already based its estimate of the number of bilirubin tests performed annually. You are jumping to lots of conclusions when you state: Multiple business plans were submitted. They didn't all say the same thing. He reviewed them. How do you know what Maisels did? He knows statistics, (how do you know that?) he's an expert on bilirubin. You need somebody with a feel for the field to look over these business proposals. Who better than someone like Maisels? He didn't just give the company number either: the company had previously estimated 15,000,000 tests (check the CC); this indicates a new estimate by Maisels. (My guess is that Maisels was involved in the original estimate as well.) Pretty broad assumptions you are making here, based wholly on conjecture. Maisels never said it was his estimate, or that he got it from research, or even from expertise in his field. Read it again Wade, Maisels read pulled the numbers from the business proposals, not from his "feel" for the field. Read the bolded language from Maisels' statement: "In reviewing market studies submitted in business proposals by international medical companies negotiating with CCSI for the Colormate(TM) TLc-BiliTest(TM) distribution, I have found the estimated number of bilirubin tests in the United States to be over 16,000,000 annually." People on this thread slammed CCSI for not responding soon enough to Asensio. If you think that CCSI did not carefully choose every word in its press release, I think you are mistaken. This is a carefully worded statement from Maisels as well, stating exactly where he got the information. You criticize me for going on and on in my previous post. I did so only because I have responded to this issue several times with Janybird, and now you, and neither of you seem to get that Maisels' response did not adequately deal with Asensio's assertion that CCSI overestimated market size and the number of bilirubin test performed annually. That is not Maisels' fault, it is CCSI's fault.