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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EPS who wrote (22891)	6/24/1998 7:50:00 AM
From: EPS	Respond to of 42771

FINANCIAL TRADER SCOREBOARD Novell Trading Opportunity & Short Technology Hedge Wednesday, June 24, 1998 We hope you are enjoying the NOVL trading idea & Analysis this morning. NOVL The Fundamentals: NOVL has parked on our trading desk for some time as a potential buy candidate. The melting of the tech stocks, and hysterical valuation of the general market, however, precluded us from issuing any sort of buy signal with impunity. As far as NOS's go, Novell wins hands down in the business community despite Nazi brain washing efforts of MS Windows to whittle the LAN market share away. Windows NT did an excellent job of beguiling corporate America to supplant the competition with the NT box. This was actually good for NOVL, though, like trading someone else's problems, you surely want your old problems resurrected. NT, now found to be the LanMine, unable to scale in large corporate environments, crippled web servers, bulky hardware requirements, execrable customer service, and an OS that will blue screen (crash) due to a myriad of wanton vagaries-- not to mention the cold boots necessary for an NT box--and suddenly LAN managers wonder what the king was wearing after all. Java on the server, LDAP, reliability, and affordability are just a few of the reasons that Novl will once again dominate the LAN market. This company understands mission critical networking, MS does not. The head to head battle of releases between NOVL 5 and NT 5 will certainly favor NOVL...fool me twice?...NT, Not Tomorrow. 6/15/1998 Our entry price of NOVL on the open was 11 3/4. As pointed out in our technical analysis, NOVL performs well even against market adversity, which today is better described as outright hostile. Once the market washes out, there should be little overhead resistance for NOVL to trade higher. See our S&P500 hedge. The Technicals: NOVL reveals impressive relative strength and strong buying momentum versus other technology stocks, see the relative strength chart vs MSFT. NOVL is one of the few issues on the board within a breath of yearly highs. In addition, the gap created above the 10.50 price level surged through critical resistance creating a buying vacuum and removing overhead supply, and a few shorts. Though not immune from internal market weakness, NOVL performs well even when the majority of its tech brothers paint it red. 6/16/1998 NOVL rallied sharply outperforming the majority of the NASDAQ. As expected, NOVL traded to new yearly highs with impressive volume. It is too early to get overly optimistic about the future of NOVL, but its ability to withstand market meltdowns, and rally stronger than its technology brothers is certainly encouraging for the short term. We remain comfortably long. 6/17/1998 NOVL counter traded with the market today in a negative beta mode. Not good for NOVL bulls, which we have grown to be. NOVL traded higher throughout half of the session to settle down 3/8 for the day. It appears to be a case of too much too soon, but still too early to tell as mentioned in yesterday's comments. We are comfortably long NOVL, but suspicious of the market as a whole. We do not see a NOVL landslide to the downside, but its response after today's action will be most telling from both a technical and psychological perspective . Fundamentally, nothing has changed. 6/18/1998 Our suspicions were confirmed today as NOVL resumed its powerful uptrend. After a brief corrective action NOVL traded higher despite the indecision of the general market. This is one of the few remaining value stocks left on the shelf, and one with very bright future prospects. It is also a fundamentally sound trade and investment for those looking to park funds for the long haul in the technology sector. We are leery of the general market as a whole and believe that NOVL 's greatest current risk is macro market specific rather than micro company specific. 6/22/1998 NOVL continues its uptrend despite the volatile trading in the general market. For now, our trading model hints at much higher prices with little downside risk for NOVL. The bounce in the NASDAQ which now looks very probable (technically) will only help propel NOVL to new yearly highs through this week... we remain comfortably bullish. FINANCIAL TRADER SCOREBOARD