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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (1221)	6/24/1998 1:49:00 PM
From: Ray Hughes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1911

Hi Bobby, Thank you. I suspect authorities are looking to see if ABX and/or FPT employees traded on "material inside information." That would be routine. My sources probably had about third hand info, so DK where it originated. Bet on Buffett. MA claims there's too much antique silver behind the scenes. This ignores that aging Yuppies & baby-boomers are now "putting things of value" in their homes. They are buying fine china, crystal and silverware, new and old, to display their wealth. Don't underestimate their buying power - this is the largest, wealthiest generation in history with the greatest discretionary buying power ever seen. They might accelerate their accumulation of antique silverware if POS accelerates. This is why, in the 1970 - 1985 period, on net balance, silver initially displayed a positive, not negative, price elasticity of demand. Just like equities, buying accelerates as investors chase a bull run. Secondly, available refinery capacity is a major factor in the short-run silver price performance. Refinery capacity is, short term, fixed. Hence, users may again experience sporadic silver supply limits (seasonal factors can cause demand to surge beyond refinery capacity). Temporary, seasonal supply tightness should give rise to another seasonal silver price rally that might attract public accumulation (see above). Result could be that, in the short run, demand would swamp ability of refiners to increase capacity. Subsequent major silver price run-up would induce miners to open up known deposits, refiners to build new capacity. Finally users, having enough silver candlesticks, might cut demand as silver price goes too high. Subsequently, the price of silver may slump back to equilibrium value - about $9.00 / $10.00 per oz. Deja vu. Same price action as 1970 - 1985 has already begun to trace out on the charts. Please notice very volatile action of 1970 - 1985 silver charts. Trade. If not, be a very, very patient accumulator. of silver equities on which you might do covered call writing for interim return. Re: ABX crosses. Lots of institutions that should never have been in PM equities are unloading for second quarter window dressing. Some institutions, seeing POG at bottom of trading range, are willing to buy. Maybe no more significance than window dressing. Every cycle is different with a differing mix of winners and losers. This round featured first copper & nickel, then aluminum, then zinc and, next, silver. (I'm ignoring Plat. group) Gold next??? I don't think so. RH