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Technology Stocks : S3 (A LONGER TERM PERSPECTIVE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Calvin Scott who wrote (11322)	6/24/1998 1:26:00 PM
From: Bill Lin	Respond to of 14577

What ARE the other fellows doing? Well, DIMD is sucking wind at 6.5 - and lower, because of their "Shotgun" modem (2 56k modems allowing you to run at 112k), dumb inventory management, and competition from STB. Recent purchase of another company was also dumb. STBI is sucking wind at 10.875 because ATI is eating into its standardization at Dell. Also margins from Riva 128 cards have declined. Inventory may also be an issue. Also increase in shares from share split and convertible issue increased debt and short shares. TDFX is a real deal at 16.75 since it leads the graphics industry , but rumors and news articles that INTC is dumping its i740 in Asia at $12, and forcing motherboard manufacturers to buy their chips is holding down its stock. Also the "Banshee" product seems dopey, at 100 million pixel fill rate, 3D performance below V2 and AGP 1x. A very hard sell chip. INTC is rebounding because kurlak said its time for institutions to start the long accumulation process. Its C&T division sucks and is losing money. Its flash division is losing money. Its processor is still carrying the company. Also, biggest threat out there for everyone, since they announced the 440EX chipset (??maybe the wrong suffix), will incorporate a cheap i740 silicon embedded. This is bad for S3. ATI also. ATI is doing great, but has some issues with its next generation chip. No news about new performance parameters, but SKI is probably the best source of news/rumors. Have to protect him, since he works there, so he doen'st release insider info. Matrox released the G200 but not for production yet. Nine is bleeding cash CREAF is having slower sales because its based in singapore, and summer is coming. Also people having problems putting up $100 for the 64 voice sound card. Too many 16 bit chips out for free. DVD still isn't selling well (relative to CD), and most margins are being made from Voodoo2 boards. Product life cycle in graphics has shrunk to about 12 months. nVidia is coming out with TNT, which should compete well with V2. the Riva 128 is a so-so chip now. Soon will be a low end card. Also bad for S3. S3 is being squeezed from all sides. Some inroads made withe the mobile chip will soon disappear, if they cannot come out with upgraded version by fall. Best technology for future is embedded graphics ram 6:1 texture compression Trilinear filtering Their s3d is not leading edge, so they will have to discount pricing to compete with Intel pricing. Basically, graphics is high risk now, because the pricing is all mucked up by Intel. There are some BIG generalizations in the above. But its a quick summary. BL

To: Calvin Scott who wrote (11322)	6/24/1998 1:53:00 PM
From: stockroach	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14577

Pessimist, awe that is a low blow. How about realist when describing me. I know you would rather read the cheerful upbeat post, you know the ones that say S3 will be in the $30-$40 range someday or that rumor has it S3 is being bought out or the fab is going public. Bill Lin has a very good handle on what is going on in the graphics market. Now ATI owns the mainstream, 3DFX owns the high end and there is a slew of new products coming that will compete with S3 Savage. Good luck with S3 but now not my cup of tea. stockroach