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To: DavidG who wrote (35658)	6/24/1998 12:29:00 PM
From: johnlea	Respond to of 53903

naz up 8% in 7 days. i guess the asian thing has disappeared and that the techs are going to have stellar qtrly earnings just like mu ;-) the naz must be getting poised to take a run a 2000 with such favorable macro economic conditions (g).

To: DavidG who wrote (35658)	6/24/1998 1:59:00 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

david A MU bear I am.....at least until MU trades above 26 3/8....MU now 25 7/16 Larry Dudash

To: DavidG who wrote (35658)	6/24/1998 5:51:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

David: Loved the humour and the compliment. "Earlie", is my self-inflicted and totally deserved nickname, while "early" is getting there too soon. With respect to my favourite annuity, it has in fact been most kind to me this year, following rather mixed results through 1998.....and this in the middle of a full blown mania. MU puts have been the weapon of choice and have served our needs well. Fidelity has enjoyed MU as much as I have. While probably more frequently, they've loaded up then dumped twice to my knowledge, unfortunately much more profitably the first time than the second. It was very satisfying (albeit expensive) to have been one of the first to spot and document the demise of the current PC/semi cycle, and it has been more than satisfying watching the analytical crowd slowly but surely catch on. It bugged me last year as I watched Kurlak print Montgomery-type baloney ("it is the best of all possible circumstances for the semi industry....." August, 1997) as his clients exited, but then he did make the needed "U" turn. I said then that he was too bright to miss what was going on and that other considerations were operant. I'd be surprised if TK moved to the bull camp before one could actually make a case for a re-establishment of some form of profitability, but who knows...the pressure to so do is enormous in his environment. Must also admit to a bit of enjoyment at having projected a dollar a share loss for MU, which turned out to be fairly close to the attained results. Incidentally, this was posted while the analytical crowd were still expecting a plus number. I remember being called dumb when I detailed my expectations for a significant shortfall between MU's chip costs and chip ASP's. Been dumb on lots of stocks, but so far, the MU scene hasn't been one of them. So what is the expectation in this bear's lair at the moment? The big "D" word, probably this Fall. The worst "pre-announcement" period that I can remember is being drowned in a flood of liquidity flowing out of Asia (especially Japan), hence the market pays twice last year's already inflated stock prices for seriously degraded earnings. That same market ignores a spreading depression in Asia, and falling fundamentals at home. It depends on its charts, ignores the obvious accounting chicanery, belittles the fumblementals and sees the gospel in Wall Street's drivel. As you noted, the party will continue for a bit yet, but the world's last remaining serious pool of cash (Japan's savings) is currently being consumed, while the market makes precious little headway. "Churning"? A healthy bull market requires big money inflows, low interest rates and above all else, earnings growth. One out of three won't carry this heavy a load. It won't be long now before many will relearn the meaning of "depression"while they search for scapegoats for their losses. Best, Earlie