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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn Perry who wrote (2875)	6/24/1998 2:26:00 PM
From: Ed Perry	Respond to of 17679

>>somehow make T/A "charting" more reliable or easier to interpret?<< In a sense yes, but maybe not for obvious reasons. Longer termed pattern indications may be more reliable because of principles of aggregation (in a statistical and a personal manner) than because of a "purer" or "better" point of view. For example, the measurement of economic production which results in the National Accounts is itself an amazing process. Even with errors and with improbables like a grey economy or intercompany transfers of MNC's products and services, the National Accounts will produce a summary measure far better than any one individual can no matter how many "mall parking lot's" he happens to eyeball. Here, the measuring process is factoring in a wealth of sources including error corrections based on past variances. Again resorting to simile and metaphor, there is a sense in which a long term charting perspective is like the National Accounts measuring process. The higher level perspective is producing an aggregated pattern and thus should be more reliable (less noise is resulting from a cancelling out effect). If one starts with a longer term view and then uses a shorter term pattern analysis for a trend change or confirmation analysis then I think your forecasts of prices change based on charting principles are enhanced. A piece of cake? Not so. The longer term charting point of view opens the interpretation to a "changes in business fundamentals" effect from the underlying security. Here, one must keep a watchful eye on the 10Q's and the 10K's as well as use imagination and insight and investigations to access whether this company makes sense for a market or customer. So, now one is back to balance sheets and business analysis and market forecasting. However, notice that the interplay is a lot healthier from a decision making point of view. Here one is using multiple points of information items in arriving at an informed decision. Also, since your charts are weekly and your reviews quarterly you are allowing enough time to ponder as well as analyze; maybe even look at competitors or pay a visit somewhere. These last points, namely the opportunity and the discipline which such a perspective forces upon the investor may be the reason why the longer term "chartist" appears to have an reliability advantage. Ed Perry PS: these discussion boards are notorious for short term trading perspectives.