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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tdl4138 who wrote (24660)	6/24/1998 12:58:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Dave, I am not arguing about the way the stocks are trading. That's a mystery to me. I'm arguing from the position of long-term fundamentals. I believe that there is some key level (exactly where it is I don't know) in measured in months or years of supply, which triggers increases in drilling activity. So the calculus involves determining not only what that level is -- and of course we are talking about a number that is the aggregate of individual oil companies -- but also the supply for rigs at that point. What I'm driving at is that there will be a huge demand for rigs once it becomes clear that Asia will be showing substantial and sustained economic recovery. I also expect that the fabricators will lead the way. I agree that the companies that will benefit the most will be fabricators like FGII and VRC because we are dealing with concatenated lead-times. So I guess we agree on the ultimate strategy (VRC is my single biggest holding), just see the causes of the slow-down and the dynamics a little differently. TTFN, CTC