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To: Sylvester who wrote (1172)6/24/1998 3:59:00 PM
From: HeyRainier  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4140
 
Hello Sylvester,

From post #8 of The Rational Analyst:

Quoting from "Schwager on Futures: Technical Analysis:

"A failed signal is among the most reliable of all chart signals."

(So you can see why I'm particularly interested in this phenomenon. Higher reliability patterns can greatly tilt the risk/reward ratios in or against our favor in these circumstances)

Continuing (others should re-read it if they did not grasp it entirely):

"...When a market fails to follow through in the direction of a chart signal, it very strongly suggests the possibility of a significant move in the opposite direction...The fact that such a retracement occurs almost immediately following the breakout suggests a "bull trap." Such price action is consistent with the market's rising just enough to activate stop orders lying beyond the boundary or the range, but uncovering no additional buying support after the breakout-- which is an indication of a very weak underlying technical picture. In effect, the immediate failure of the apparent buy signal can be viewed as a strong indication that the market should be sold..."


Please pardon the grim nature of the post.

Regards,

Rainier