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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (20772)	6/24/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: Rick Mai	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

TAKEN FROM LCRX CALL messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com ...TO hear it from the horses mouth - conference call (800) 642 1687, #234217 ...1) Expect worldwide equip sales 4/98 - 3/99 down 30% from year ago. Korea down 70%, Japan down 40%, Taiwan down 20%, North America down 12%, Europe minimal downturn. Current quarter book to bill will match industry. ...2) Market share - can't tell because overall downturn confuses numbers, believe that Lam has stopped existing decline in market share. ...3) Details of re-organized Lam will be in conference call at end of July (year end results). ...4) Many DRAM mfg are running flat out to preserve market share. Foundry capacity 50%, other (logic) at 70% - consistent with info in the press. ...5) 300 mm activity - flat to somewhat down. Etch, CMP, Clean - no substantial changes in R&D efforts - programs remain intact. It's in the companies long term interest. CVD program lost chance with major semiconductor mfg (Intel)- no comment on it's fate until July 28th. ...6) Need for new equipment to do finer geometries. Current limitation is litho. Belief is that DUV can extend to 0.13 um technology with special masks. Some etch/pvd/cvd tools can make it that far, others will need upgrading. ...Worth noting (My analysis) - 30% reduction in sales puts Lam running around $180 mil. RIF reduces workforce to around 3300 - 3500. This puts Lam back to the size company it was in late '94? Unfortunately gross margins are 10% lower than back then and there is additional overhead from inventory and property. Don't look for significant profit/loss in this timeframe. ...Also worth noting - word inside AMAT is that they will have a 20 - 25% layoff in August. The 10% "voluntary" layoff only netted 5% and business conditions got much worse in the interim.