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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ahhaha who wrote (1263)	6/25/1998 3:35:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1911

Hi- here goes and please trash it..also have a very articulate and very bright internet buddy who pointed out to me that I have been talking about deflation and now all of a sudden talking about inflation..so this post might be very long winded..(ugh since I don't have your gifts or my friend's(W.B) gifts)-with that disclaimer here goes some rambling.. I think Rubin helped to lower long term bond rates by telling market he was cutting availability...so with less supply..he (with help of Japan and businesses like insurance that have to buy long term bonds) ) helped bond rates go down which helped corporations cut their costs from borrowing and also being able to float paper,besides in turn helping real estate to become more affordable and to have mortage holders refinance which in turned helped banks and gave more people extra money with lower mortage payments and also helped the stock market down the road since people are looking for best return and when money markets were coming down people started going into mutual funds as bond market became less competitive and also with change in pensions again fueled market )..Rubin knew that bond traders don't care about long term fundamentals but just view short term changes so he got the ball rolling...he was right...incredible job creation resulted and the rates stayed low because of our exporting our inflation abroad...he probably knew dollar would get stronger and us assets would become safe haven and would add to the lowering of interest rates..if he had kept the supply of long term bonds high.. might not have happened for a much longer time.. with the cbers making concerted effort to trash gold..also made the dollar stronger and us treasuries more attractive.. NOW...HE AND GREENSPAN HAVE CREATED BASICALLY A TWO TIERED SOCIETY.. people on ss have gotten killed..prudent savers with money markets have gotten killed..the inflation figures have been kept artificially low for social security not to rise..a alot of people are working longer and longer hours..the disparity between the wealthy and middle class has increased to I think staggering proportions..but no complaints until now..people were just happy to have jobs.. Now with that structural change in place..think the fed realize that inflation is coming back..health costs have bottomed probably last year and are turning up..oil may have bottomed..labor market tight so wages will probably start rising..consumer finally spending..starting last year..ie retail sells..before it looked like a corporate driven recovery..so now is the time to to start changing supply of bonds and notes..make short term notes less available and if I am right start increasing supply of bonds so when rates start going up..let the government lock in as many bonds with low rates.. now what will happen..with this global competition..will our domestic economy which is in full gear now prevent deflation? have deflated commodities bottomed? will these mergers, a lot financed by buyouts with inflated stock certificates help reduce costs to keep corporations showing profits? will Asia recovery to provide another rotation for the next leg of the bull market here while our domestic economy remains strong in the mean time and buys enough time for multinationals to correct?