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Biotech / Medical : Alfacell (ACEL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: leighton stallones who wrote (1419)	6/25/1998 11:10:00 PM
From: John Jenco	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1533

In trying to focus on the positives of the moment, my understanding of the Onconase event timeline is as follows: Jun 30 Completion of Phase III pancreatic trials Aug 30 Completion of Phase III data analysis Sep 15 NDA discussion mtg with FDA Oct 31 NDA filed with FDA Mar 30 NDA approval by FDA If this timeline is roughly is correct, then we should begin to see some preliminary changes in the trading volume no later than the end of August, with a sharp upward movement after the FDA meeting. I, myself, would expect to see a sideways-to-slightly-upward trend from wherever ACEL settles out after the post-FDA meeting spike, until the NDA is approved. I would also expect to see this generally lateral movement disrupted by periodic spikes on 'news' relative to strategic alliances. I would expect to see a dramatic spike near the approval date for the NDA, which could happen anytime between Jan and Mar/99 (For some reason, I don't think we will have to endure a particularly long approval process), followed by a sharp drop on profit taking. Depending upon what we are subsequently able to negotiate with respect to manufacture, marketing and distribution, we should finally begin to see a sustained rise in volume and share value through the remainder of 1999. The slope of that rise will be generally be determined by the medical community's acceptance of Onconase, and the company's ability to manufacture, market and deliver product. I would expect to see another sharp rise over time, beginning late in 1999, as initial revenue figures are published. Does this sound reasonable? Does anyone else have any ideas?? Thanks. --John