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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (20787)	6/25/1998 2:08:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

All, ESTIMATE REVISIONS: AMAT: OLDE DISCOUNT decreased estimate for fiscal year ending 10/99 from $1.90 to $1.65 on 06/22/98 AMAT: OLDE DISCOUNT decreased estimate for quarter ending 04/99 from $0.42 to $0.35 on 06/22/98 AMAT: OLDE DISCOUNT decreased estimate for quarter ending 07/98 from $0.24 to $0.23 on 06/22/98 AMAT: OLDE DISCOUNT decreased estimate for quarter ending 07/99 from $0.51 to $0.46 on 06/22/98 AMAT: OLDE DISCOUNT decreased estimate for quarter ending 10/98 from $0.28 to $0.23 on 06/22/98 AMAT: OLDE DISCOUNT decreased estimate for quarter ending 10/99 from $0.64 to $0.58 on 06/22/98 GM

To: Gottfried who wrote (20787)	6/25/1998 11:31:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, >some groups (precious metals comes to mind) STAY at the bottom for a long time. Any advice?< You asked a $1 M question. From our readings of DW we note that time is not measured with Point and Figure Charting. It is the market, sector rotation as investors, brokers, and mutual funds who are trying to maximize there profits (supply and demand) that determines the bottom, top and stock movement. Every time I have lost money I have gone contrary to the DW statistics and NAIC fundamentals rather than stress buying in the oversold area and fundamentally sound stocks. Also, I chart the IBD EPS, RS, SR, Funds owned, and other table data in the stocks which I own. I believe that if we buy sound fundamental stocks, which are gorilla's in their sectors, the sector is down below the DW 30% (oversold) area and preferably during a down market, statistically, we have a great chance for success. I have stayed away from the precious metals. The NAIC Stock Selection Guide assists me in fundamental analysis, and Dorsey Wright provides data on the market, sector and individual movements to aid in timing, lows and highs. After reviewing all the data available I make an intuitive judgement along with fundamentals (pe, etc), DW's sector ovesold stocks, potential EPS, BTB, etc.and what stocks that the Market will be revolving into. I also, like those sectors which have wide swings (volatility) from below the DW 30% to the 70% ranges. There are only a few sectors which have these wide swing, ie, SEMI'S and Biogenitics--but you have to be patient and have a gut of steel. A review of the the sectors give us this percentile data. I do not buy into the sectors which have run up. Right now I am in AMAT (SEMI), CA (SOFTWARE), IFMX (SOFTWARE), and ZOLT (MANUFACTURING) but will sell when the sectors get in their overbought, 70+ range. My major holdings are AMAT and CA. In the future, when I get prepared to sell I will get a Bloomberg chart printout which shows the price spread existing between the stock I am going to sell and the stock I wish to buy. This will enable me to maximizing the number of shares of the gorilla stock I purchase in the oversold area. Currently, my local group is chosing one or two gorilla stocks in each of the DW sectors which I post. Then, I must have the patience to wait for the market to rotate. Normally, I do not wait more than 6 months if there is no movement in a stock. Since I am now in the 20% tax backet capital gains area at this time I will sell without any tax restraints. I have found that statistical data gives me the stability to minimize my emotions in relation to market and stock movements and to plan my plan and work my plan. I am always trying to improve my techniques. So please give be additional tip! IMO, this site and our discussions add tremendously to our calculated decisions. My past posts give the data which I look at. Just my $.02. Paul V.