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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pierre-X who wrote (3807)	6/25/1998 10:59:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Those who are familiar with my theory of cycles know that the stage for a boom is set by lowball forecasts that choke off capacity expansion. Looks like we're (finally) starting to see some nice, grim forecasts. Nice grim forecasts coupled with nice grim Income Statements that deprive these "hell-bent for expansion" CEOs of needed capital and nice grim Balance Sheets that stop the banks from lending to them. The nice thing about the disk drive business is that end demand should grow. It this were the copper industry or the oriented strand board industry, which have recently suffered the same fate due to haphazard expansion, you would worry because end demand grows very slowly. If your forecasts are accurate and we enter an era of demand growth, this excess capacity should be put to use rather quickly.

To: Pierre-X who wrote (3807)	6/25/1998 2:55:00 PM
From: Short A. Few	Respond to of 9256

One other factor (for platter, head suppliers esp) Or maybe correct me if in left field - but haven't Compaq, HP, and Gateway just got done cleaning up major inventory problems? With as much notoriety as Dell's approach, and big inventory problems at Compaq, 3Com, and others, have received, are we not likely to see a re-balancing of sales? FWIW, please comment.