mike.
to follow-up on doug's "unproven technology" post, here's a very lengthy piece on the future of ip telephony via the san jose mercury. (note, don't bother doing your homework on hybrid networks namedropped below -- unfortunately, the company's in the proverbial shitter.)
Friday, June 26, 1998
Phone-Net links likely to increase
BY JON HEALEY
Mercury News Staff Writer
The merger between AT&T Corp. and Tele-Communications Inc. isn't about bringing telephones and televisions together -- it's about making telephones act more like computers.
AT&T wants to use TCI's cables into 10.5 million homes to provide local phone service, something AT&T cannot do today over its long-distance network. And instead of conventional phone technology, the company plans to use techniques drawn from the Internet and data communications.
The catch is, no one is doing that yet. The technology has been used almost exclusively for international and long-distance calls, not as a foundation for the local phone service that people rely on in emergencies.
It's hard to find a company that's even trying to run a local network that way, at least not outside of a laboratory. Although cable industry officials predict the technology will work, they also say that AT&T will have to pay a premium to make its local service as dependable as the competition's. The technology, known as Internet protocol telephony, works by translating phone signals into the language spoken by computers -- a process that requires a powerful microprocessor. As a consequence, it demands something more than a $10 phone plugged into wall jack.
A growing number of communications companies are embracing this and other data-communication techniques as the wave of the future for phone service. These range from upstarts like Qwest Communications Corp. and Level 3 Corp. to well-established companies like Sprint and MCI.
The technology has been used almost exclusively for international and long-distance calls, where it can cut costs dramatically for users.
AT&T, the nation's largest phone company, demonstrated its commitment to the technology Wednesday by announcing its purchase of TCI, the country's second-largest cable TV company, in a transaction valued at $48 billion. Federal, state and local regulators all have jurisdiction over portions of the deal, so it is not expected to close until 1999.
Like much of the cable industry, TCI is upgrading its networks to handle data transmitted to and from homes. Its initial target is the rapidly growing market for high-speed access to the Internet, a service that TCI offers in Fremont and selected other Bay Area communities.
Once its networks have been equipped for two-way data communications, however, a cable company can move to Internet protocol telephony with relative ease. That's because a cable modem can transmit a digitized phone call as easily as electronic mail or a World Wide Web page.
The concept is simple enough, but the execution is more difficult. Several key pieces of equipment are still being developed.
For one thing, users cannot simply plug a phone into a cable jack and make calls. Instead, they will need some kind of adapter -- possibly built into the cable modem or set-top converter box -- that converts the phone signals into data packets. Alternatively, they could buy "smart" phones with built-in digital converters or use computers equipped with telephone software.
Jim Forster, a Cisco Systems distinguished engineer, said the technology exists to transmit a phone call clearly via a cable modem. What needs more work, he said, are such supporting features as billing systems, call waiting and caller ID.
Another issue is reliability. When the power fails, phone networks keep working because they have back-up sources of electricity. Cable systems do not, and providing those back-ups is costly.
Rather than make their phone service meet that standard, many cable companies are planning to offer second phone lines, not replacements for the primary line into people's homes, said Rick Enns, chief technical officer at Hybrid Networks Inc., a cable-modem manufacturer in Cupertino. Other reasons include the cost of providing such essentials as 911 service and directory information.
A few cable companies offer phone service today in a handful of cities, and none uses Internet protocols to do so.
Still, Rick Edson, senior vice president for new business initiatives at 3Com Corp., said, "The technology is probably much further along than many people believe." He predicted that cable companies will start offering phone service based on Internet protocols near the middle of next year, beginning with discounted long-distance and toll calling.
Michael Harris of Kinetic Strategies, a consulting firm that monitors cable modems, said the cable companies were still "a good 18 months away" from trying to compete for their customers' primary phone lines using Internet techniques. AT&T will need networks as reliable as the local phone companies' if it really wants to compete with them, Harris said, adding that AT&T has the money to do that.
mercurycenter.com |
