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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (20803)	6/25/1998 3:32:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

KD: you are exactly correct: If AMAT hits 60 later this year, I will: 1. Read every scrap of info I can find about AMAT, its competitors, its customers, and its suppliers. 2. make a complete list of all my assumptions about the industry. My first assumption is "this list is incomplete" 3. go over the list slowly, asking myself: "what am I missing?" 4. If I really can't see any possibility other than scenario A or B, then I'll bet the farm. In my third year of stock-picking, I've decided that my med school classes in psychiatry have been more usefull than the classes in statistics. And my electives in poetry have been more usefull than the required year of calculus. I've been repeatedly amazed at how emotional the market is. Mr. Market truly is an idiot sometimes.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (20803)	6/25/1998 3:54:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

KD: re: " suppose someone discovers that an AMAT dielectric deposition system is ideally suited to making a Viagra-delivery patch. :-))" A study of this kind would never even get to phase I trials, because the Human Subjects and Ethics commitees would never approve it. I guess you could do an "underground" test in someplace like Brazil, or try it out in monkeys first. I'm trying to think about how you could design such a test, and what the measured end-points would be. Copper and 300 mm will probably happen first. Someone might discover it, but they could never prove it, and so it'd never get to market. At least, not on this planet.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (20803)	6/26/1998 12:19:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Katherine,>I wouldn't make a claim like that if I were you.... I don't think AMAT will hit 60 this year either, but if it does it will be because some third scenario happens.< I agree with you. Last up cycle AMAT, when it hit its previous high of $60, it completed the "Cup" portion of what William O'Neil, classifies as the "cup and handle" scenario where momentum takes over. The stock then proceeded to move upward to the $108.375 where it split 2x1. IMO, Tito, on this site, also re-inforced this concept when he, I believed, stated, "after $70 AMAT has the tendency to move quickly to $100 +." Am I wrong Tito? My statistical, standard deviation data, calls for a high of $105.733 in this up cycle. We shall have to wait and see how the DW projections now materialize. Gottfried, Didn't I project a high for 1998 of around $60?<g> I am glad we are now talking about $60. Just my $.02. Paul V.