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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (13805)	6/25/1998 6:21:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116791

Looks to me like the traders are just as confused as the rest of us<g> biz.yahoo.com Thursday June 25, 5:10 pm Eastern Time At key pivot, dollar/yen bulls ponder intervention By Al Yoon NEW YORK, June 25 (Reuters) - Dollar/yen bulls were chomping at the bit on Thursday but key technical levels and memories of last week's joint intervention gave reason to pause in U.S. trading, market-watchers said. The greenback on Thursday briefly powered past 142 yen, approaching the level where U.S. and Japanese officials began selling the U.S. currency last Wednesday. That surge eclipsed one key technical flashpoint and left the currency on the verge of a fresh break to recent highs, analysts said. ''Technicals, and the fundamental fact that that's where the Fed intervened last week'' put a lid on dollar/yen early, said Jeremy Fand, foreign exchange strategist at BankBoston, who added some dealers expected a rough 135-140 range to persist. Any convincing move past 142 yen could herald a quick dollar pop higher, analysts said. Traders said 141.70/80 represented a 61.8-percent Fibonacci retracement of dollar/yen's fall from its recent eight-year high of 146.75 to the post-intervention low of 133.60. Further, 141.67 was the high of June 10, an important pivot just before the more dramatic move toward 146. But the break beyond that area could nullify resistances, said John Tirone, technical analyst at Chase Securities. ''This is the level that we broke out to and the next day we saw 144.40. So psychologically it could have the same effect if we have a strong move in this area,'' Tirone said. Dollar/yen hovered close to 141.50 for much of the morning in New York. Some traders reported accounts holding the rally back with fresh short-dollar positions. Dealers said market action earlier on Thursday reflected sharper, albeit shallow, downmoves compared to upmoves, which signaled an indecisive market. In the end, there may not be a compelling reason to test central bank resolve, they added. ''People have to take intervention seriously ... anytime the dollar goes from 142 yen to 133 in a very short period of time, it could be very costly to be doubtful,'' said Tom Arnold, chief dealer at Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank in New York. Still, despite the intervention fears at the top, Arnold stressed that a lot of accounts had a ''real need to buy dollars on the downside.'' Fand said the market was focused on news-driven risks rather than the negative economic fundamentals that have pushed the yen sharply lower for the past year. With parliamentary elections in Japan looming next month, dealers doubted Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's Liberal Democratic Party would offer any policy proposals that might shake the market soon, he said. ''People want answers and will wait for something on the political side with (U.S. President Bill) Clinton in China or on the bank loan issue out of Japan,'' said Fand, who added that many accounts were unwilling to take speculative positions after the losses they've seen in the past week. Clinton began a nine-day trip to China on Thursday. Dealers were watchful for talk of yuan stability after some speculation last week that Chinese pressure helped convince the United States to join Japan in the intervention. Fand was dubious that another intervention was near, with U.S. officials seen more worried about the pace of the yen's fall than actual levels. Last week's move with Japan was a one-off event buying time for the Japanese to craft a policy response that could anchor the yen for now, he said. Dai-Ichi Kangyo's Arnold said the yen would likely continue to weaken, fueling speculation of Asian currency devaluations.