To: Lance who wrote (472 ) 6/26/1998 12:51:00 AM From: Brad Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4624
As Costco expands the program, the revenue stream (income) to JNNE increases as well. The company has indicated previously that they get about $65 on each loan that closes. As I recall, the average loan is about $180,000. I don't know what has closed so far, but if Costco does what they expect to do in this program ($3-4 Billion in loans this year and $32 Billion in loans next year), we can do some calculations... Costco has 211 stores in the USA. $32 Billion divided over 211 stores = $151,658,000 per store. $151,658,000 divided by 12 months = $12,638,000 per month per store. The first payment covered loans closed through Dec 31, 1997. That was only about 2 months into the program. And there were probably no loans in the "pipeline" on Day 1. So let's discount the first 45 day as just a processing time (since most loans seem to take about that long). And let's say they tested the program in only 3 stores or so to begin with. We would have 50% (1/2 month) of normal average store volume for 3 stores. That's $12,638,000 x 50% x 3 = $18,957,000 in loan volume closed. $18,957,000 divided by $180,000 (avg loan) = 105 loans 105 loans x $65 = $6,825 That's not a big amount, but it's significant when you consider what Costco expects to do as they expand this to all their 211 stores. ----------------------- NEXT 12-MONTHS: $3.5 Billion divided by $180,000 = 19,444 average loans 19,444 average loans x $65 = $1,263,860 to JNNE NEXT YEAR (MONTHS 13-24): $32 Billion divided by $180,000 = 177,777 average loans 177,777 average loans x $65 = $11,555,500 to JNNE ------------------------------------------------- And this income has virtually NO expenses! JNNE says they will have a POSITIVE EPS THIS YEAR ! I can believe that. These are MY estimates that I did tonight based on what I understand about JNNE's program. It might be interesting to check with JNNE and see if I'm even "in the ballpark." :-) Best wishes, Brad