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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (6030)	6/26/1998 8:02:00 AM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Ohare of LDP says formation of bridge bank 'too complicated'. Jess, what is your take on what this signals, if anything?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (6030)	6/26/1998 8:17:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 10921

Jess, what is happening in the US market is a modified ponzi scheme. The standard ponzi scheme offers the first investors an exuberant return, paying them with funds coming into the scheme from the next in line. Nothing is invested in the mean time. The US market ponzi scheme offers a false sense of security as the only safe haven in the world. Market prices keep getting driven up as more money flows in. Though the money is invested in legitimate business, the current value is hard to substantiate with fundamentals. The bubble is blown to its limits already, in area like the vapourware internet stocks. It does not take a genius to figure out that 5 - 10 points per day gains for stocks like MindSpring, SEEK, Amazon, AOL etc are simply unsustainable. Similar to a ponzi scheme, some investors have already lost their money (because some of these companies will not survive) but they just don't know it yet. However, the bubble may not burst for a while. I understand a lot of US type brokerages are finanlly allowed to open in Japan. I think it is ML who is opening something in Tokyo July 1. Is that going to be a conduit for a huge inflow of funds into the US market from Japan? Then again, if the massive amount of Japanese savings start flooding here, it may trigger a yen devaluation of sunami proportions and burst the bubble. Ramsey

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (6030)	6/26/1998 8:19:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

You may, of course, be entirely right, entirely wrong, or somewhere in-between about US stocks. Valuations are at record highs and, if the economy slips, we know what happens to 20+ PE stocks dependent on continued earnings growth. We could see a "correction" in the 30% range even without a serious recession. That said, I will say that I've been hearing this for four or five years now. I stay invested because it is impossible to time the market consistently. Analysts who look at this kind of thing report that a broad basket of stocks bought in 1929 BEFORE the collapse would have nevertheless appreciated better, as of 1996, than any other generally-available investment. But if you take out something like 15 days when your money wasn't invested, the total return drops by 50%. So I've decided the only way to play the market is for ultra-long term capital growth, and just take the big declines without complaint. My sister wouldn't invest in stocks three years ago for the very reason that she expected a collapse, due to the fast run-up, and it has hurt her investment returns (as you can imagine). That's not to say I don't stay on my toes, and I certainly get into more defensive stocks if I get worried. But the long-term odds favor staying invested, as I have never yet seen anyone predict short-term market movement with consistency. I saw Sumimoto and Long-Term Credit plan a merger. Any comment?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (6030)	6/26/1998 11:31:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 10921

Jess, I think that instead of printing additional yens (they have plenty of these stashed in the postal system), the Japanese authorities should facilitate consumerism. Two steps I would suggest would be simplification of their distribution system (a long term proposition that if they wanted, they could accomplish in 10 to 15 years, but they'd better start), and second a massive advertising campaign to promote consumerism as the "patriotic" thing to do. If they did it they would get quite a response from a population waiting for a leadership to tell them how to get out of the mess they are in. However, I doubt they will do that, since Japan is scared to death of increased aggregate demand causing a surge in imports, as well as increased consumption from their domestic excess capacity. What they need in not so much new stimuli (what they have put in place, if they spend it, is quite sufficient), they need marketing whiz to persuade the population to circulate all these yens within their economy and the region's economy. Zeev