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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pierre-X who wrote (4740)	6/27/1998 9:06:00 AM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

Pierre, Thanks, good to be back...Tampa was hot and humid. On "turn heads"...The problem with making vague statements like this in advance is that one creates expectations that are rarely fulfilled. I'm not enough of an expert (know little to nothing about)graphics core designs to tell you whether I heard or not a capability that will turn heads...Perhaps handling multiple 3D windows, handling out of order Intel instructions, or what it takes to approach the theoretical limit of 2D performance may be things that another graphics core designer might say, "How'd they do that?" I don't know whether you listened to the interview with Scott Sellers but one notable item in the interview, somewhere about 15 minutes in, was a brief mention that there was strong positive interest on the part of some unnamed OEMs to integrate a Voodoo Banshee board into stock PCs. Along with some of the emphasis in 2D business applications such as Power Point, I've come to the premature conclusion that Dell and Compaq are the likely candidates. On the very short term prospects of the stock, I mentioned previously that I didn't expect the stock to go much of anywhere buy sideways. At this point the performance of the stock has been so poor this quarter, that there will be enough fund managers that want TDFX out of their portfolios by 30 June so they don't have to report it as a current holding. There seems to be at the moment fairly strong support at 16. If I'm correct, we only have two more trading days and then I'm hopeful that TDFX will begin moving upwards towards 2Q earnings report. Based on Ballard's comment in early June of being "comfortable" with analysts projections, I'm not anticipating a blow out earnings report as some have suggested. Though I do have some concern over 3Q earnings...It could be that Voodoo II sales in 3Q will be decidedly down and Banshee sales, if the final is released late in the quarter, may not be sufficient to carry the quarter. I am however quite optimistic of 4Q revenue and earnings. If I didn't own the issue, I would be inclined to pick some up at this price. But I have a rigid rule against averaging down, so I won't be picking any up. On the bright side, I acknowledged the risk of the investment up front and kept my buy to a small percentage of the portfolio. So while I've taken a big hit on TDFX, the effect on the bottom line on the portfolio is small. Not trying to change your decision to cutting down your position just sharing my thoughts. Best Regards, Jim