Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Iomega Thread without Iomega -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vanni Resta who wrote (85)	6/26/1998 12:11:00 PM
From: Hunter Vann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10072

Though I do find it offensive that any poster thinks they have the right, or the power, to ban another poster from an SI thread First of all, he's not banning anyone. Read the thread introduction a little more carefully.(This is really quite childish. We relocated here to escape from these meaningless conversations) Seems like a rather presumtious attitude from a control freak, to me. Don't remember sending you an invitation to join our little party. If you don't like the guidelines, simply leave. Is it not normally the case that companies, like IOM, which announce massive layoffs and earnings shortfalls, go into a continuous downward spiral that lasts anywhere from six months to a year, Some last longer ... some shorter. That's why we relocated the thread over here to discuss the pros & cons of different situations that Iomega will go through over the next few years. It's a thread that was created to get away from the meaningless dribble I'm sitting here talking about... I have noticed this happen with so many stocks that it is almost a sure fire strategy to short a stock in the early phase of bad news announcements. Define early phase. Iomega has had a string of bad announcements and if you're just catching up on the news, then you may be a little late in administrating your plan of attack... personal attacks like the one from Hunter Not an attack .... just an opinion...

To: Vanni Resta who wrote (85)	6/26/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: prashanth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10072

Vanni, In regards to your views on free speech, I concur. However, with a posts like Rocky we degenerate into repetition and lies. Check his previous posts if you are skeptical. But enough about Rocky already. In regards to your question, the IOM situation is muddled at best. I do believe that the situation will get worse before we see any substantial improvement. However, to short IOM in this position seems a bit risky. We have seen this stock get beaten up pretty good. I think the downside from here is maybe another $1 or so. The danger in shorting at these levels in a well established company seems relatively high. I figure there are better short candidates out there than IOM. As for IOM being in the initial stages of bad news; we are closer to the middle or tail-end of this cycle. IOM preannounced their problems several months ago. Most of the bad news is already out. For all intensive purposes, IOM is dead money for a few months. We are now at a stage where we are assessing when and to what degree IOM can improve its business model to get back to profitability. I believe this starts with a CEO. Once that is announced, expect a slight rally in the stock. The direction of IOM from that point falls directly on the shoulders of the CEO. This company must exercise better foresight in terms of marketing expenses, customer service, and most importantly bottom line profitability. I hope this helps. Regards, Prashanth

To: Vanni Resta who wrote (85)	6/26/1998 12:48:00 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10072

A serious reply is that IOM has pre-announced the earnings shortfalls for the coming year, and that it was an excellent idea to short the stock when the first hint of earnings problems came out in late January. If you go back to that time period, you will note that I joined the previous IOM board as a bear using just such reasoning. Thus the basis of your question is appropriate. However, it now becomes an issue of timing one's investment. And the only thing sadder than a Bull late to the party is a Bear late to the party. Currently there are over 13 million Zip drives that will be using Zip disks. As you know that is a record for purchase of computer peripherals in the relevant time period. I base my decision to invest in IOM on the fact that even if another Zip drive is not installed, there will still be a significant market for the disks and those disks will be sold through a company that purchases the remains of Iomega. My calculations, which include good will, a reasonable return on equity based upon the expected number of Zip disks to be sold, and a solid engineering staff still intact, indicate that $3.50 is the downward limit for IOM's stock price. The upside of the stock is enormous. Sony's installed base for portable high capacity storage is zero. Orb's installed base is zero, and the competitors on the market such as Syquest have gained little market share. Since I have a little experience in the stock game, I will share this with you as I have as a previous bear on this thread. IOM is in a cyclical business. Like all products in the storage business it faces the prospect of technological obsolescence. Storage stocks are always going to be cyclical. Iomega is no exception. The stock market anticipates. If the market has discounted the various bad news in IOM then it's an excellent investment. If not, then it will fall further. What specifically tells me that IOM is near its bottom? IOM's price after the most recent announcement shows strength. Second, its valuation based on a sales to stock price ratio is favorable. (And make no mistake about it, it's a goofy as it gets to slam IOM by using trailing PE ratios. Market share is the key statistic not PE. If a stock's low PE was the sole determining factor for purchasing a stock then one would have missed out on the enormous moves in AOL for example.) Another statistic that tells me there is little left in the downside for IOM is the relative stability in short interest for the stock. After the most recent earnings announcement, there was little increase in short interest. And make no mistake about it, there are a lot of shorts who are very bright. Finally, there's a issue of sentiment, which can be gauged from the various IOM threads on SI. Some very long-term and ardent bulls recently capitulated on IOM--including a true gentleman who took a major beating on the stock to the tune of over half a million dollars. Similarly, the brighter bears have genrally gone on to greener pastures (Note the relative absence of Ken P). Most telling is your appearance. A bear without substance whose expertise is dropping in on a number of threads and posting nasty remarks is generally a contrary indicator. Frankly Mr. Resta, you are always quite welcome to this thread when you ask serious questions. I think that you will find it far more challenging than the pattern you have demonstrated to date on other threads where you have limited your skills to rather simplistic one paragraph slams directed at other posters. So make the best of this opportunity to grow and mature as a contributor to SI. For Real. As a start, perhaps you can provide this thread with a ten to fifteen paragraph post detailing the bear argument for IOM. It would be a rewarding experience for all involved. IF YOU CONTINUE TO POST SLAMS THIS THREAD HAS THE DISCIPLINE TO IGNORE YOU