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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MtnMan who wrote (18281)6/26/1998 12:59:00 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 25960
 
I get updates from DLJ's Semi analyst Robert Maire. Here are some highlights from his latest email report:

SEMI-WATCH

It's pre-announcement season and we are in full swing. This week
started out with two smaller players FSII and General Scanning
pre-announcing a weak June quarter followed on Wednesday after market
close by Lam Research announcing yet another charge and layoff. This
time a full 25% of staff on top of the 14% that was let go in the first quarter. There was a hardly noticed announcement that Applied Materials was putting off its new expansion in Japan. Finished up with Asyst on Thursday after market close announcing a weak June quarter for revenues and earnings coupled with a stock buy back because the shares are so cheap.

Asia continues to be the common refrain repeated over and over. The
only new twist is how quickly and how weak Taiwan is getting. Jim
Bagley said on the conference call that he thought capital spending
would be down 30% March '99 over March '98 years. Deep UV is in a
"free-fall" state and CMP was weaker than anticipated. The recovery seems to be pushing out into 1999 rather than late 1998.

Cont. >>

***note: This is just one analyst's perspective on Cymer's arena. I am more (cautiously) optimistic about a quicker recovery. I'm patient and I continue to hold onto all of my remaining shares of Cymer.




To: MtnMan who wrote (18281)6/26/1998 1:16:00 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25960
 
DLJ insights cont...

Market Update

Who said the market isn't rational? The day after Lam Research
announced a major layoff and restructuring charge, it was one of the few equipment company stocks up on the day, most others were down. Makes sense to me. The equipment stocks seem to have been pulled up by a strong tech tape early in the week and we appear to be reaching a point that we saw several weeks ago where incremental negative news seems to have no negative impact which seems to indicate that we are somewhat washed out for the moment. In any event we are a few percent off absolute bottom but the odds of moving back down are still good.

***I don't quite agree with that last sentence. I really feel that Cymer's sector is oversold. The bad news from Asia and the projected order pushbacks are already in the current price. Cymer still has great fundamentals and a tremendous strategic position in the chip market. If only some day it would start performing like my DELL, MSFT, or CMGI!!! Sometimes it helps to keep dreaming.

Have a great weekend everyone.

-Scott