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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc henschke who wrote (20903)	6/26/1998 5:47:00 PM
From: Fortinwit	Respond to of 70976

OT That said, however, it does get tiresome to hear you incessantly state with utter conviction the negatives of current industry conditions when it's clear you actually lack sufficient conviction to short AMAT. Can we please not turn this into a Yahoo thread... F.

To: marc henschke who wrote (20903)	6/26/1998 5:50:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

>>That said, however, it does get tiresome to hear you incessantly state with utter conviction the negatives of current industry conditions when it's clear you actually lack sufficient conviction to short AMAT. << If I can stick my nose in here... A sure sign of irrational exuberance is bitter criticism of opposing views. Sounds like a reason to short AMAT right there. Personalities aside, though, there are plenty of reasons not to short a stock despite one's opinion that it's short term prospects are poor. Portfolio diversification and a belief that more money can be made elsewhere (short or long) spring to mind. So does a belief that shorting is inherently too risky for a given portfolio and goals, or a suspicion that the irrational market isn't going to figure out the stock's true value within a reasonable time. None of these "doubts" has anything to do with the business prospects of the company. I share Teri's general opinion that the near-term prospects for the semi equipment sector are poor. I'm not short AMAT either. So what's your point? Katherine

To: marc henschke who wrote (20903)	6/26/1998 6:17:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Marc, It would benefit us all to have you continue to post your opinions and or observations/commentary. Even if I did defend Terry, rest assured that I would also defend you under similar circumstances. In a forum such as SI everyone has the right to be voice their opinion (pro or con) as long as there is no immature or direct attack on an individual who is being "civilized" in the nature of his/her posts. You were well within your "rights" to question Teri's motives if you felt they were extremist in nature. Stay around! Most of us were supporting a long time association with Teri, don't take it personnaly. I have been on the hot seat more than once for my unpopular stance/opinions, but I toughed it out and am still here. I consider all who have a vested interest in AMAT to be "kindred spirits" even if I do take a well meant "potshot" at some of them occasionally. Lord knows that my hat has numerous holes in it, from ducking potshots from others. (right GM?? 8^) Please reconsider going "underground", we all benefit from the mutual support of the AMAT thread members, besides we do get tired of hearing from the same old voices/opinions all the time. Some fresh perspective is always welcome, even if we don't necessarily fully agree. Regards, BB

To: marc henschke who wrote (20903)	6/26/1998 7:52:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Respond to of 70976

Marc, Off-Topic Re: "Fair enough, but then why aren't you shorting the stock?" Because I am not the world's best short-seller. A person's timing has to be right, as well as the direction. Also, I do not like the risk/reward scenario of a short position. I am a better trader of stocks from the long end. And, yes, my official guestimate on the thread is that AMAT sees 20 this year. I fully believe with everything I have that the trend is down at the moment. But, I have a much harder time figuring when Wall Street will begin to see the picture more clearly. Of course, we know there is a possibility that any of us can be wrong, but these are my beliefs. I've lost money on my beliefs before, almost always because of timing. Aki, BB, Jtech and others here are better timers of trades than I am by a long shot. And, while at the movie with Sara (Mulan, really an entertaining Disney movie... I was surprised it was so cute, this Moo Shoo character is priceless! where can I find a dragon like him? -g-) I remembered that you have posted before and so did not actually come "out of the blue". Regards, Teri

To: marc henschke who wrote (20903)	6/26/1998 8:18:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Marc, Off-Topic I didn't get this edited in time, but I have lots and lots of conviction about the semi-equips (tons of it really)... I have just lost money in the past on the timing issue; this is what makes me hesitate to short or buy more puts. And, right this second, there are probably better shorts out there than the equips, like YHOO or AMZN or that software company Jtech was telling us about (Arbor something...that's not the right name, I haven't researched it.) Anyway, conviction, I'm not at all lacking in conviction. I am just "respectful" in a screwy sort of way of the hype that Wall Street sells mostly through the sell-side analysts that makes stocks go up when every logic in the world says they should go down. Now we've definitely beat a dead horse. And, hey, we welcome your input here; the more thinking people we have, the better off we are, IMO. Teri

To: marc henschke who wrote (20903)	6/26/1998 9:52:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Let me really confuse you: I think amat's near term prospects suck, and I was buying up to the 8 days ago. I generally find that it is an exceptionally effective strategy to buy when a stock has collapsed in half, spun for 6 months, and looks like it should go down another 50%. I feel that it is a good "pitch" and so I swing, knowing that missed opportunities are what keep me up at night; I get giddy when the stocks I have been buying continue to slide. Teri likes to wait until the pitch is across the plate exactly where she wants it AND THE FIELDERS ARE ASLEEP. It appears to me that she doesn't suffer the same pains from the missed opportunity: the stock that gets away. Many approaches are effective for investors. Let's try to keep our battles reasonably clean. The Thread Monitor.