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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Giambrone who wrote (10645)	6/26/1998 8:15:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Respond to of 18691

Robert, I think AMZN can now be safely shorted with very little upside risk. The irrational run is over I think, maybe a few bounces but each will have a lower top.

To: Robert Giambrone who wrote (10645)	6/29/1998 10:03:00 AM
From: Marconi	Respond to of 18691

Hello Mr. Giambrone: I use a rule of thumb that staff growth in excess of 30% per year is rapidly less and less manageable. Even 30% takes astute management to handle it well. The exception being low skill employees where there can be rapid hiring and the performance and results are obvious to all in the firm--duplication essentially. With around 400% increase in staff, probably not enough of those employees rank as 'duplicates'. The strain factor translates pretty directly into reduced effectiveness and greater potential for big mistakes. It is hard to tell where Amazon is at on those issues specifically--but with those staff numbers there has got to be turmoil--realized by management yet or not. I think the announcement goes beyond standard precautionary statements by management. I predict that a reorganization is going to be announced to address immediate issues--which would help shed some light on the nature of their organization and management skills. If it is patchwork and hopes, then they will have confessed they do not know how to manage as they should. Best regards, m