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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc henschke who wrote (20914)	6/26/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

Marc, Re:Think about it Bucks, isn't an atheist really an arrogant agnostic? Now thats funny, and in a "twisted" sort of way, true!! I am less "irrationaly exhuberant" about mid/late '99 unless there is a dramatic industry/economic turn-around or hot new technology to again drive the production gears of the semi related stocks. In any industry there has to be a "catalyst" to ignite the fires of capitalism. The bottom line is profit motive. If a new technology requires increased chip production the chip mfg's and equip mfg's will ramp up to meet the demand. Right now I just don't see the kind of demand necessary to fuel a growth cycle. The equip mfg's lag the chip producers by about 6 months, so they are roughly 180 degrees out of phase as far as production demand, I consider this a normal semi business cycle, timewise. So, if I project forward, and rationalize that the chip demand will start to increase in Jan '99, then looking out another 6 months would put the equip mfg's ramp somewhere in the June/July timeframe with significant orders being filled 3-5 months later at the end of '99. The other factor that has changed is the multi-year delay of 300mm equipment. But I do think that 0.18- 0.15uM devices will start happening in '99 which should require some new enhancing technology buys/upgrades for 200mm wafer production. So, to answer your question, No I don't think we will see $120 in '99 but an increase in sales/earnings seems likely. This could move a stock like AMAT to the $50-60 range on speculative momentum. I sure hope so, I could live with that! Just my opinion. BB