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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (3140)	6/27/1998 4:51:00 PM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Musing From The Swamp I got stopped out of 4 stocks this week using trailing stops: DIS, GE, IBM and CAT. Essentially what I did was, after it made an up move in the current day, I would place the stop at about the prior day's close. Still haven't made a decision on the future use of them. As I get the chart reading better, I'll probably just bail when it gets to the "g-spot". DIS is a great example (and I think it is going to be a great trading stock for a while -- a real battle of the bulls and bears). I show a huge long-term trading channel for disney of $96 by $118. Alas, the short-term is clearly coming down to what looks to me like $114 (its high for the week was $113.938). Looks like a wide-swinging pennant forming. I'll focus again on it if it gets to $105. Jury did it again. Look at BA. If that wasn't a bullish breakout, I need to go back to the books. Which brings me to the greater issue. Clearly, IMHO the S&P breakout above 1120 was significant. I'd like to see a confirmed retest. Alas, the DJIA did not participate, and we have GE, PG, MRK, KO etc. at the top of the channel. As we know, because of the construction of the DJIA, a BA has as much impact as a GE on the average. Therefore, if we get a confirmed retest on the S&P, I think the short-term winners are going to be the under-performing little guys in the DJIA, such as AA, BA, ALD, UK. It's interesting that all of them are "6-2" in the MACD system. As to BEL, actually there were a couple of others in the sector that I was looking at Thursday. Seems like AIT and BLS did just fine. At this point, I'm about even, so no harm, no foul (except for lost opportunity). I still believe the critical support at $90 will hold -- if not, see ya, as I'm not going to stick around to see where it is. BWDIK TB (finally)

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (3140)	6/28/1998 3:37:00 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

A Late Night BAMBI Commentary No, not that Bambi; my BAMBI. First, the current observations of the week that was. BAMBI is still a bearish 16 to 14, but that is a dramatic improvement over the previous week. 14 of the DJIA stocks beat the Index and I consider that modestly bullish. More importantly, we had four bullish signals (JNJ, PG, MO, and AXP). These are the first bullish signals signals since April 24 and the most since mid-Feb. There was one bearish signal (DD); however, having had 14 in the last 4 weeks, this is a positive sign. Since BAMBI takes some effort to maintain, I reviewed in detail the prior 21 weeks from 1/30 to 6/19. I wanted to see if there was any reasonable correlation between the classification and subsequent performance (i.e., against the S&P 500 Index). There were 21 weeks involved; thus, 630 chances for a DJIA stock to beat the Index in a given week (21 wks x 30 stocks). The DJIA stocks rose to the occasion 308 times, or 49%. Time to get a dart board? Let's see how the MACD classification affected the outcome: MACD TYPE PERCENT 1 86 2 58 3 32 4 19 5 37 6 70 I conclude that it is worth the effort. I could go into the issues more, but let me just leave you with a couple of interesting tidbits. First, there was no occasion in the past (no guarantee for future results) where the S&P Index was negative in the week following any bullish signals by DJIA stocks (read the first paragraph again). More interesting, in the weeks the Index was positive, DJIA stocks only beat the Index 39% of time. While in the weeks in which the Index was negative, the DJIA stocks beat the Index 81% of the time. I did not expect this conclusion; however, it brought home what running for cover really means. Hope you enjoy, as I'm summarizing about 10 hours of effort. As I probably stated before, I got this really bad habit of asking myself a question for which the answer takes a lot of effort. BWDIK Berney